21 Nov 2024
OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA's Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed report will be worth spending time analyzing. The report is scheduled to be released at 2 p.m. CST on Friday.
For starters, if the on-feed numbers total year-ago levels, then there will be roughly 11.9 million head on feed. But if the analysts that believe on-feed numbers could be closer to 101.3% of a year ago are correct, that could push total numbers above 12 million head. That has only happened 14 times since 2019 and is somewhat of a baffling market reality when you consider that the industry sits with record-low cow herd numbers. It's likely that this would be an upper-tier threshold for the industry and that we'll likely see on-feed totals begin to dwindle moving forward.
Secondly, it's going to be very important to note where placements sit, as that will affect showlists later next spring. I personally tend to believe that placements will be on the lower end of analysts' range of estimates simply because cattle were marketed aggressively earlier this year.
**
| | USDA Actual | Average Estimate | Range |
| On Feed Nov. 1 | | 100.0% | 99.5-101.3% |
| Placed in October | | 104.2% | 101.8-107.0% |
| Marketed in October | | 105.1% | 104.7-105.7% |
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com
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