DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/30 11:02
30 Sep 2015
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/30 11:02 Grains Mixed at Midday Soybean and corn trade are higher at midday as we head into the USDA Quarterly Stocks numbers. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are higher with the DOW futures up 225 points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 50 points higher. Energies are mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $12. CORN Corn trade is 3 cents higher in quiet trade ahead of the quarterly stocks report. Harvest should pick up greater steam this week, soybeans coming out first in many areas. The September 1 Quarterly grain stocks report will be out at 11. The range of trade guesses is 1.647 billion to 1.85 billion bushels with 1.739 the average guess. Ethanol production was .53% higher on the week, and stocks were .62% lower, giving ethanol futures a light boost at midday. On the nearby December chart resistance is the 100-day at $3.89, which we have edged above this morning with the $3.95 September high above there, then the 200-day at $4. Support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.80, then the $3.57 1/2 contract low. The market will trade the report, then focus on yield reports. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 9 to 12 cents higher with trade moving towards the high end of the range ahead of the report. Meal is $5 to $6 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Soybean harvest should move fairly quickly this week with early yields remaining fairly strong. The Soybeans stocks number will be closely watched on Wednesday with the strong crush rate this summer potentially bring stocks down. The range is 165 to 250 million bushels with an average guess of 205 million bushels. On the November chart the contract low at $8.53 1/4 is long term support with the 20-day moving average at $8.75 nearby support. Resistance is at the $8.94 1/2 September high, which we have edged above at midday, then the 50-day at $9.11. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower across the three contracts in quiet trade at midday with the choppy trade ahead of an expected negative stocks report. Concerns over dry planting conditions in Ukraine and Russia have limited selling interest on breaks, while the dollar continues to chop in the upper end of the range keep U.S. origin more expensive on the world export market. Much of Kansas could get a boost in moisture this week. The report on this morning is expected to reconfirm comfortable world and domestic supplies. The range of expectations is 1.95 to 2.285 billion bushels of wheat, with 2.149 the average guess. On the Kansas City December chart support is at the 10-day at $4.92 and 20-day moving average at $4.86 with resistance at the $5.08 50-day moving average. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.