By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks report pegged year-end supplies of corn at 1.73 billion bushels and soybeans 191 million bushels, within the range of pre-report expectations.
It also reduced old-crop soybean production by 41.7 mb to 3.93 bb.
Wheat production came in below the range of pre-report estimates for all wheat, winter wheat (all classes) and spring wheat, as reported in the Small Grains Summary also released at 11 a.m. CDT on Wednesday.
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CORN
Corn stocks as of September 1 totaled 1.73 bb, near the average pre-report estimate and even with USDA's forecast of ending stocks earlier this month.
Of total stocks, 593 mb are stored on farms, while 1.14 bb are stored in off-farm locations. Disappearance for the June-to-August timeframe was 2.72 bb, up from 2.62 bb during the same period last year.
USDA revised its June 1 stocks number to 4.452 bb from 4.447 bb.
SOYBEANS
USDA pegged soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 at 191 mb, slightly lower than the average trade estimate but within the range. September's World Agricultural Supply and Demand report had pegged stocks at 210 mb.
Farmers held 49.7 mb of soybeans on-farm, while 142 mb were stored in off-farm locations. Indicated disappearance for June to August totaled 436 mb, up 39% from the same period last year.
"Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing-year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2014 soybean production is revised to 3.93 bb, down 41.7 mb from the previous estimate," USDA stated.
Planted acres were revised down to 83.3 million, while harvested acreage was cut to 82.6 million. The national average yield, at 47.5 bushels per acre, is down 0.3 bpa from the previous estimate.
USDA revised its June 1 stocks estimate to 627 mb from 625 mb.
WHEAT
The Grain Stocks report pegged supplies as of Sept. 1 at 2.089 bb, toward the low end of pre-report expectations and up 10% from a year ago.
USDA said farmers held 647 mb on-farm and 1.44 bb off farm. Disappearance from August to June was 716 mb, up 1% from the same period last year.
In the Small Grains Summary, wheat production for every class but durum came in below the range of pre-report estimates.
All-wheat production as pegged at 2.05 bb, USDA said. That's 86 mb lower than what USDA forecast in its August Crop Production report. Area harvested for grain totaled 47.1 ma, up 2% from the previous year. The national average yield was estimated at 43.6 bpa, down 0.1
USDA estimated winter wheat production at 1.37 bb with an average yield of 42.5 bpa.
Farmers produced 827 mb of hard red winter wheat, USDA said, down from its August projection of 856 mb. Planted acreage was down in most of the HRW-growing states, with particularly large decreases in Kansas, Montana and North Dakota.
Soft red winter wheat production declined 21% from last year with farmers harvesting 359 mb compared to 455 mb last year. The August Crop Production report had estimated the crop at 389 mb.
White winter wheat production totaled 184 mb, slightly higher than last year and just slightly below the range of pre-report estimates. Harvested acreage in the Pacific Northwest declined 3% from last year, but yields were up from last year.
SORGHUM
Sorghum stocks as of Sept. 1 totaled 18.4 mb, toward the high end of pre-report estimates. Farmers held 1.9 mb on-farm while the remainder, 16.5 mb, was stored in off-farm locations.
OATS
USDA pegged oat production at 89.5 mb, up 27% from 2014's total of 70.2 mb. The national average yield, at 70.2 bpa, is 2.3 bpa higher than last year and a new record for the United States. Harvested area increased 23% to 1.28 million acres.
BARLEY
Barley production was estimated at 214 mb, 18% higher than the previous year. The national average yield is down 3.8 bpa from last year at 68.9 bpa, USDA said. Harvested acreage increased 25% from 2014 to 3.11 ma.
ANALYSIS
In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA said that Sep. 1 stocks of U.S. corn totaled 1.731 billion bushels, slightly less than expected. U.S. soybean stocks totaled 191 million bushels, less than expected. U.S. wheat stocks totaled 2.089 billion bushels, less than expected.
"Wednesday's grain stocks report from USDA is bullish for soybeans and wheat, neutral for corn," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.
In its Small Grains Annual Summary report, USDA said all-wheat production for the U.S. totaled 2.052 billion bushels in 2015, up 1% from 2014, but less than expected. Winter wheat production totaled 1.370 billion bushels, less than expected. Hard red winter wheat totaled 827 million bushels and soft red winter wheat totaled 359 million bushels, both less than expected. White wheat production totaled 184 million bushels, less than expected. Other spring wheat totaled 599 million bushels, less than expected. Durum production totaled 82 million bushels, a little more than expected.
"Wednesday's production estimates from USDA were bullish for wheat prices, in general," Hultman said.
Editor's note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT on Wednesday for a discussion on the USDA Small Grains Annual Summary and quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Sign up now at: https://goo.gl/….
| QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels) |
| (Report date 9/30/15) | 9/1/15 | Avg | High | Low | 6/1/15 | Sep-15 |
| Corn | 1.731 | 1.735 | 1.800 | 1.647 | 4.447 | 1.732 |
| Soybeans | 0.191 | 0.204 | 0.225 | 0.165 | 0.627 | 0.210 |
| Grain Sorghum | 0.018 | 0.016 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.034 | 0.017 |
| Wheat | 2.089 | 2.165 | 2.285 | 1.987 | 0.753 | NA |
| SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY (billion bushels) | Actual |
| 2015-2016 Production | 9/30/15 | Avg | High | Low | Aug-15 | 2014-15 |
| All Wheat | 2.052 | 2.139 | 2.200 | 2.105 | 2.136 | 2.026 |
| Winter | 1.370 | 1.432 | 1.447 | 1.406 | 1.438 | 1.378 |
| HRW | 0.827 | 0.856 | 0.870 | 0.845 | 0.856 | 0.738 |
| SRW | 0.359 | 0.384 | 0.390 | 0.365 | 0.389 | 0.455 |
| White | 0.184 | 0.193 | 0.197 | 0.185 | 0.193 | 0.184 |
| Spring | 0.599 | 0.625 | 0.638 | 0.615 | 0.621 | 0.595 |
| Durum | 0.082 | 0.078 | 0.081 | 0.075 | 0.077 | 0.053 |
(AG)
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