DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/29 11:18
29 Oct 2015
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/29 11:18 Grains Mixed at Midday Futures are mixed in slow trade at midday with beans lower and corn and wheat higher. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments U.S. stock markets are lower with the DOW futures down 55 points. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 40 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude down .05. Livestock trade is lower Precious metals are lower with gold down $26.00. CORN Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with better commercial buying support during the day session. The weekly export sales were better at 708,800 metric tons, but overall sales in October have been low. The market appears complacent to stay in our recent 30-cent trading range; we are still nearly two weeks away from the USDA November WASDE report. Position-squaring and trade guesses ahead of that report should give us support. Seasonally with harvest wrapping up, basis should narrow and some carry come out of the market to encourage farmer selling. Fundamental arguments remain that breaks will fizzle because it will discourage future plantings while rallies will hurt demand while we are in a comfortable stocks position. On the December chart support is at the 10-day moving average at $3.78 then the $3.72 October low. Resistance is at the $3.83 20-day then the 100-day at $3.89. SOYBEANS Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade trying to firm off the early day-session weakness, so we should call momentum flat to firm at midday. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. Better rains are forecasted for Brazil over the next seven days, which has limited the upside this week. Basis has firmed slightly in some areas on soybeans, and may improve more with harvest near complete. Spread trade has softened into midweek, with the front months moving back to carry. The weekly export sales were strong at 2.09 million metric tons of beans, 218,700 metric tons of meal, and 82,400 of oil. On the November chart support is at the $8.71 3-week low with major support down at the $8.53 contract low. First resistance is at the $8.85 50-day, then $9, then the $9.19 3/4 high reached on the 14th. WHEAT Wheat futures are 3 to 8 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with good buying showing during the day trade. Cold weather concerns are around in Russia and South America, while Australia remains hot and dry, giving a few positive items for the market to talk about. Until that turns into bigger U.S. export business, fundamental bears will continue to point to limited export demand and large domestic and world carryovers. The weekly exports showed improvement at 550,300 metric tons, and Romania bested Russia and France for Egyptian business. The USDA reduced projections for Australian production and the market will watch that number on the USDA report on Tuesday November 10. Rains look to be mixed for the HRW belt with the east seeing better coverage. On the KC December chart, futures have moved back above the lowest moving average, the 10-day at $4.82, which is now first support then the $4.65 contract low. Resistance is at the $4.93 20-day then the $5.21 early October high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.