DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 11:27

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/09 11:27 Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday Trade is Mostly Lower at Midday Led by Wheat. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow futures down 200 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 20 points lower. Energies are lower with crude down $0.45. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday after slightly higher trade overnight. The USDA report will dominate trade this week when it comes out tomorrow at 11 AM. The DJ Survey of estimates ended up with an average trade guess right on the October USDA numbers which were 168 bushels per acre yield and 13.555 billion bushel crop. The average trade guess for the world carryover is at 188.7 million metric tons versus 187.8 last month. So very little change is expected, which sets us up for an active day on Tuesday if the USDA gives a number different than last month. The market could over react even to a small 50-million-to-100-million-bushel-change. The weekly progress report is expected to show the corn harvest around 90% complete. The weekly export inspections were disappointing at 295,701 metric tons, which has been behind our midday weakness. Basis remains strongest in the east and ethanol margins are getting a boost from better energy values this morning. On the December chart support is at the $3.69 low reached today then the $3.57 contract low. Upside resistance is at the $3.78 20-day moving average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with commercial buying supporting the front months. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The DJ Survey of estimates produced an average yield estimate at 47.5 bushels per acre versus the USDA October 47.2 number. The production estimate is at 3.912 versus 3.888 billion last month. The world carryover estimate is unchanged from last month at 85.1 million metric tons, so similar to corn, any deviation from the October carryover could give us an active day on Tuesday. The weekly progress report is expected to show harvest effectively complete, and inspections showed 2.026 million metric tons which was softer than recent weeks. The South American weather will be watched closely with an uptick in moisture expected in the near term. On the January chart support is down at the $8.57 contract low which we came within a penny of this morning. First resistance is at the 10-day at $8.78 then the 20-day at $8.92. WHEAT Wheat trade is 6 to 13 cents lower at midday trade with the Kansas City trade gaining vs. the Chicago again. Commercial buying has picked up in recent days even if it hasn't shown up in exports. The dollar is a bit weaker this morning after the post job report spike, but it will likely remain near the upper end of the range in the near term limiting export competitiveness. The USDA could lower the 2015/16 export usage estimate next Tuesday due to the light sales and shipment data. The carryover is expected to be in line with the 861 million bushel October USDA number. The global carryover is expected to be at 227.9 million metric ton versus the 228.5 October number. The weather questions will linger for Northern and Southern Hemisphere production weather needs to have some problems for the bulls to gain any traction this winter. The weekly report is expected show conditions 1-2% better, and export inspections remained soft at 282,551 metric tons. On the Kansas City December chart support are the recent lows at $4.75, while the resistance is the 10-day and 20-day moving averages at $4.88. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.