DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/10 11:19

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/10 11:19 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is lower at midday ahead of the WASDE report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow futures down 35 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2.70. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with chart pressure ahead of the WASDE report due out at 11. The report estimates have yields from 164.2 to 170.1 bpa, with 168 average, production from 13.29 to 13.71 billion bushels with an average of 13.555 billion bushels, and domestic carryout 1.31 to 1.77 billion bushels with an average of 1.591 billion versus 1.561 on the October report. The weekly progress report showed corn harvest 93% complete vs. 88% on average. Basis remains stronger in the east but all areas are firming with the lower board price. Ethanol margins are finding some support from the firmer energy trade ahead of the report. On the December chart support is at the $3.57 contract low. Upside resistance is at the $3.77 20-day moving average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents lower ahead of the report with additional selling during the day session. Meal is $2 to $3 lower, and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The DJ Survey of estimates produced an average yield estimate at 47.5 bushels per acre versus the USDA October 47.2 number with a range of 46.2 to 48. The production estimate is at 3.912 versus 3.888 billion last month with a range of 3.818 to 3.955, and domestic carryout at 430 million bushes and range of 353 to 475 million bushels. The world carryover estimate is unchanged from last month at 85.1 million metric tons, so similar to corn any deviation from the October carryover could give us an active day on Tuesday. The weekly progress report showed harvest 95% complete vs. 93% on average. On the January chart support is down at the $8.57 contract low which we came within a penny of this yesterday. First resistance is at the 10-day at $8.75 then the 20-day at $8.87. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents lower with additional selling in prereport action with Kansas City near the contract lows yet again. Trade failed to hold the recent gains with demand concerns and the strong dollar continuing to keep pressure on the market. The USDA could lower the 2015/16 export usage estimate next Tuesday due to the light sales and shipment data. The carryover is expected to be in line with the 861 million bushel October USDA number with a range of 805 to 950 million bushels. The global carryover is expected to be at 227.9 million metric tons versus the 228.5 October number. The weather questions will linger for Northern and Southern Hemisphere production weather needs to have some problems for the bulls to gain any traction this winter. The weekly report showed winter wheat 51% good to excellent, up 2 percentage points vs. last week, and 11% poor to very poor, with 80% emerged, same as average, on 92% planted vs. 94% on average. On the Kansas City December chart support are the contract lows at $4.65, while the resistance is the 10-day and 20-day moving averages at $4.88. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.