By Alastair Stewart
DTN South America Correspondent
SAO PAULO, Brazil (DTN) -- Two private Brazilian analytical firms issued opposing forecasts for the country's 2015-16 soybean crop on Friday, with one raising its estimate and the other trimming its outlook.
The opposing positions highlight two different points about this year's crop.
INTL FCStone lowered its 2015-16 soybean crop view from 100.4 million metric tons to 98.8 mmt after a dry November in the Center-West and the eastern Cerrado states of Bahia, Piaui, Tocantins and Maranhao, a region known as Matopiba.
While productive potential has been impaired in Mato Grosso and Goias, FCStone said, the biggest threat to crops is in Matopiba.
While the Center-West rainfall is normally well in excess of needs and lower-than-average precipitation is not necessarily disastrous there, Matopiba does not enjoy that excess and needs rains to fall, Natalia Orlovicin, grains analyst at INTL FCStone, explained.
Meanwhile, Celeres, a local consultancy, raised its estimate from 98.9 mmt to 101.8 mmt, based on a larger-than-expected planting area.
It raised its planted area forecast by 500,000 acres to 81.6 million acres, still lower than INTL FCStone, as farmers transfer more acres from first-crop corn. They have opted for soybeans following the devaluation of the real, which has favored the oilseed much more than summer corn, which is basically consumed internally.
While noting the problems in the Center-West and Matopiba, Celeres chose not to significantly alter its yield forecasts to take this into account.
With more farmers switching from summer corn to soy, more will also plant second-crop corn, Celeres said.
It estimates area will rise 7% to 24.5 million acres in 2016 and output will jump 5.5% to 58.2 mmt.
But, again, INTL FCStone diverges, focusing instead on the climatic conditions.
It pegs second-crop output at 53.3 mmt, down from 54.5 mmt last year, despite a projected 1.6% increase in acreage.
The dry October and November in the Center-West that delayed soybean planting will in turn mean a significant portion of the region's second-crop corn will be sown after the ideal planting window, FCStone said.
"Second-crop corn will be subject to greater climatic risk as the rains tend to diminish from April and May and low temperatures can lead to frosts, for example, said Ana Luiza Lodi, an INTL FCStone analyst.
Which estimate market watchers choose to believe will likely be based on how well they think tropical soybeans will bounce back from early dry spells and how concerned they are about forecasts of further dry weather in the Center-West in January.
Alastair Stewart can be reached at alastair.stewart@dtn.com
(CZ/AG)
© Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.