DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/09 11:16

DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/09 11:16 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is firmer ahead of the report at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 103 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 75 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle continuing to struggle. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $3. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade finding some light buying support ahead of the WASDE report. Basis should remain sideways to firm with farmer selling slowing with the break. The weekly ethanol production report showed production 3.9% higher, and stocks were .84% lower, with gasoline demand 1.5% higher. The Monthly WASDE report this morning is expected to leave things mostly unchanged from November with no yield or production changes, only possible minor demand changes. The average trade guess is 1.769 billion bushel 2015-16 US carryover versus 1.760 on the November report. The global carryover is expected to be at 208.1 versus 208.2 last month. So the market will watch the report, but this is viewed as the least important monthly report of the year. Maybe that is when we will get some excitement or surprise. On the March chart futures are just above the 10-day at $3.73 with first support now at the 20-day at $3.71, and second at the $3.64 contract low. Resistance is at the $3.82 4-week high reached Monday then the 50-day at $3.84. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with soybeans working to consolidate after the early week struggles. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is narrowly mixed. Soy oil has been complex leader with concerns about Asian palm oil production, but the slide in crude oil has slowed the rally, while meal has struggled to find traction. South American weather continues to leave some holes but major issues remain limited although there might be greater potential for rust in some of the wetter areas of Brazil. Argentina looks to be promoting more aggressive export policies but it may take some time for them to come to fruition. The WASDE report is expected to be in line with last month with any material adjustment likely coming to South American production, but there is limited reason for much change. The global carryover estimate is at 82.9 million tons versus 82.9 last month, the range of estimates is 82-84. The domestic carryover estimate is 466 million bushels with a range of 445-502 versus the 465 million bushel November number. On the January chart support is at the 20-day moving average at $8.73. Resistance is at the 50-day at $8.83 then the seven-week high printed yesterday at $9.09 3/4. WHEAT Wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents higher across the three contracts higher at midday with support from row crops and the weaker dollar. Spread trade favored the Chicago contract to start the week with concerns about the Russia and Turkey conflict bolstering soft wheat trade although Kansas City has shown more strength today. Basis has been sideways in recent days with the U.S. export competitiveness still struggling. U.S. wheat should be drier in the near term with warm temps, with Russia seeing similar weather slowing crops move towards dormancy. The WASDE report is not expected to show major changes. The average trade guess for the domestic carryover is 917 million bushels versus 911 last month. The world carryover is expected o come in at 226.8 million metric ton versus 227.3 last month. On the March Kansas City chart support trade is the 10 and 20-day moving averages in the $4.72-4.74 area. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.