By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor
OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa forecasts 2015's corn crop will be slightly larger and the soybean crop slightly smaller than USDA forecast in November. It also updated its 2016 acreage forecasts.
Informa forecasts U.S. corn production in 2015 to total 13.725 billion bushels, up 72 million bushels from USDA's forecast in November. Planted area is expected to increase slightly, as is yield, estimated at 170 bushels per acre.
Soybean production was cut to 3.97 bb, 12 million bushels below USDA's November forecast. Yield was left unchanged at 48.3 bpa, and the reduction comes from slightly lower acreage, reflecting the most recent Farm Services Agency data.
"The increased corn estimate is reasonable and probably in line with general expectations for USDA's January report," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. "The slight decrease in soybean production is a little suspect as many are expecting a slight increase. Neither new estimate is likely to have much price impact on either corn nor soybeans, as traders' attention has shifted to South America and this winter's slow pace of exports."
USDA will release its annual Crop Production report on Jan. 12 at 11 a.m. CST. A host of other reports will be issued that day, including quarterly Grain Stocks, WASDE and Winter Wheat Seedings.
On 2016 acreage, Informa sees farmers planting more acres to corn and soybeans than they did in 2015 and less winter wheat.
Informa estimates that farmers will plant 88.9 million acres of corn in 2016. That's up slightly from 2015, but below Informa's previous estimate of 90.1 ma.
Soybean plantings, estimated at 84.5 ma, is a 2% increase over 2015, but is slightly lower than Informa's previous estimate of 85.2 ma. Informa said it expects a bulk of the increase in soybean acreage to come from the Western Corn Belt and Missouri, which saw a large number of prevent plant acres last year.
Winter wheat plantings were increased from 38.7 million to 39.4 million acres, a 1% reduction from 2015. Hard red winter wheat area was estimated at 29.2 ma, soft red at 6.8 ma and white winter at 3.35 ma.
"It is still very early to assess planting estimates for 2016 and, while Informa's early estimates are reasonable, they may change by spring depending on how South America's season goes," Hultman said.
Katie Micik can be reached at katie.micik@dtn.com
(AG)
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