DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices kicked off the new year moving in the same direction they were headed at the end of last year: down. For a second week in a row, fertilizer prices were lower the first week of January 2016, with some prices down significantly, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower compared to a month earlier, with half of the fertilizers down by some significance.

As was the case the previous week, DAP was down the most -- by 7% compared to last month. The phosphorus fertilizer had an average price of $495 per ton.

Also down 7% compared to the previous month was anhydrous. The nitrogen fertilizer had average price of $582 per ton.

Both MAP and potash are 6% lower compared to a month earlier. MAP had an average price of $521/ton while potash was at $392/ton.

Both potash and anhydrous were down 6% compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $398/ton and anhydrous at $590/ton.

The remaining four fertilizers had slight declines compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $381/ton, 10-34-0 $572/ton, UAN28 $273/ton and UAN32 $316/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.41/lb.N, anhydrous $0.35/lb.N, UAN28 $0.49/lb.N and UAN32 $0.49/lb.N.

The lower retail fertilizer prices have caught the attention of many in recent weeks. The University of Illinois Extension had a farmdoc Daily report on the subject on Dec. 15. And, on Dec. 30, Michigan State University (MSU) Extension published the report "Fertilizer Prices in 2015."

Written by George Silva, senior MSU educator located in Charlotte, Michigan, the report shows fertilizer prices are "noticeably lower" compared to prices one year ago. Much like the Illinois report, this report compares fertilizer prices from December 2015 to prices from December 2014.

"Generally, fertilizer prices are higher during the growing season and lower during the off-season," Silva wrote. "Given the fact that fertilizer is the single biggest input cost for corn production, Michigan State University Extension recommends producers be aware of price fluctuations over time and take advantage of purchasing options."

In addition, Silva wrote, these lower prices may not be around forever. Many industry experts believe that despite the fertilizer market stability, any unforeseen changes in global demand or supply may cause dramatic price shifts, he said.

To read the entire MSU article, visit: http://msue.anr.msu.edu/….

With retail fertilizer moving lower in recent months, all fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All but one fertilizer is now double-digits lower. The only fertilizer not down much is 10-34-0, which is down 1%.

MAP is now 12% lower, both DAP and UAN32 are 13% less expensive and UAN28 is 16% lower from a year previous. Both anhydrous and urea are 18% lower and potash is now 19% less expensive compared to a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(AG/SK)

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