DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/22 11:25

DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/22 11:25 Grains Mixed at Midday Early gains have given way to mixed trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock markets are higher with the DOW futures up 140 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 34 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 2.00. Livestock trade is stronger led by cattle. Precious metals are higher with gold up $1. CORN Corn trade is penny higher at midday after mixed overnight and early morning trade but we were unable to hold early gains after strong weekly export sales number. Ethanol margins for blenders are improving with unleaded 3-4 cents higher and ethanol futures up 2. The weekly export sales were strong at 1.16 million metric tons. The South American weather forecast does not have any major threats for corn to justify a bull market off of weather here, but has trended a shade drier for corn ground. On the March chart we have moved above the 50-day at $3.67, and closing above that area today could trigger more chart buying but we struggled to hold that area this morning. The $3.72 area has stopped rallies this week, and it looks like that area will hold until the weekend. SOYBEANS Soybean trade has turned 3 to 4 cents lower this morning after trading 7-9 cents higher on good exports with trade unable to find enough momentum to push through the $8.85 area. Meal is $3 to $4 lower, and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The forecast for South America continues with the drier nearby weather, and improved extended forecast, so we have a fairly neutral weather outlook with some lingering concerns. The weekly export sales were ok at 985,000 metric tons of soybeans, 280,600 of meal, and 19,300 of oil. On the March soybean chart the 10-day at $8.76 is support then the 20-day at $8.71. The 100-day at $8.85 is major resistance at this juncture, and we were have failed at that area twice this week. The market has consolidated this week illustrated by the close major moving averages; this likely has us set up for a bigger move with funds either exiting shorts on a move above resistance, or piling on more if we break looking for South American harvest pressure concerns to support the bear argument. WHEAT Wheat trade is narrowly mixed across the three exchanges with wheat staying fairly range bound today. The strong dollar will continue to limit exports, but the weak ruble triggering further inflation may lead to export restrictions. Egypt pulled their scheduled tender yesterday, before reinstating it with business going to the Black Sea area as expected. The weather forecasts lacks significant near term cold threats in Russia and the U.S. with snow cover hanging on in Russia. The weekly export sales showed some improvement at 362,000 metric tons. On the March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.68, with the longer term low at $4.52 below that. Resistance is at the $4.75 50-day moving average, which we tested this morning before failing. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.