By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
OMAHA (DTN) -- After more than a year of campaigning, Iowans will get the first crack at choosing the next president with caucuses this evening.
Results are expected to start coming in as early as 7:30 p.m. CST, but likely will not be final until far later in the evening. That will be especially true for Democrats in the state because their meeting process includes more evening politicking, to try swaying people to switch support for candidates.
The caucuses have been the focus of both political parties for more than a year. The state has seen a mix of big personalities, the all-important "ground game" and discussion of the role of ethanol in the state's overall politics.
The caucuses begin at 7 p.m. CST at more than 1,600 precincts across the state. The Iowa Democratic and Republican parties of Iowa have websites to post the results: www.idpcaucuses.com and www.iagopcaucuses.com.
The New Hampshire primary is the next event on the presidential election calendar. It will be held Feb. 9. Following that will be the South Carolina primary and Nevada caucuses, but the big presidential showdown will be March 1 when 12 states from across the country hold primaries or caucuses. The slugfest for the role of party nominee could drag on until the primaries are scheduled to end on June 7.
Observers on Monday night will be watching not only the results, but the volume of turnout, which is far easier to track for Republicans than Democrats. Republicans report candidate voting totals while Democrats report percentage of delegates won. Still, the Democratic Party reported a 2008 turnout of 227,000 people when President Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton while the GOP reported 120,000 participants.
Most of Iowa is expecting a major storm starting Monday night, but DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson said he doesn't think the weather is going to affect the caucus turnout. Western and central Iowa might be encountering some early rain during the precinct caucuses, but snow is not expected until later in the evening.
Iowa is considered a "purple" state, in that its allegiance in the general elections often changes. Iowans supported President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but also supported former President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. The state's partisan split is somewhat regional as eastern Iowa leans Democratic while western Iowa is more heavily Republican.
Candidates made their final arguments across Iowa last weekend with rallies across the state. The final, most credible polling on the caucuses was released late Saturday by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics. For Republicans, Donald Trump was leading the field among likely caucus-goers with 28% support compared to 23% for Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio polled at 15% and Ben Carson at 10%. The other seven GOP candidates polled in single digits.
On the Democrat's side, Hillary Clinton is favored by 45% of likely Democratic caucus-goers while Bernie Sanders is within the poll's 4 percentage-point margin of error. Sanders has 42% of support among likely caucus-goers. The key in the Democratic race might be who sways supporters of Martin O'Malley, who is only polling at 3%-4%. In the caucus precincts where O'Malley doesn't poll at 15%, his supporters may have to switch to Clinton or Sanders.
Regarding issues germane to agriculture, ethanol has remained at center stage throughout the caucus campaign. Cruz, a senator from Texas, has been aggressively attacked by the ethanol industry because he has traditionally opposed the Renewable Fuels Standard. Trump has declared he supports the RFS "100%." Both Democratic front runners, Clinton and Sanders, have said they support the RFS and renewable energy in general as ways to address climate change.
Des Moines Register Democratic poll article: http://dld.bz/…
Des Moines Register Republican poll article: http://dld.bz/…
Chris Clayton can be reached at chris.clayton@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN
(CZ/SK)
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