DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/08 11:32

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/08 11:32 All Grains Lower at Midday Outside market weakness has grain trade lower with few changes expected on February report on Tuesday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 315 points. The interest rate products are sharply higher. The dollar index is 18 points lower after trading higher initially. Energies are lower with crude down 60 cents. Livestock trade has hogs mixed and cattle at or near limit down. Precious metals are sharply higher with gold up $35. CORN Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday in slow action. Outside markets are pressuring corn but limited fresh selling interest at 3-week lows is around ahead of the USDA report. The weekly export inspections were low at 438,560 tons. The USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) are due out at 11 a.m. tomorrow. The average trade guess is for the domestic corn carryover to come in around 1.810 billion bushels versus 1.802 on the January report. World ending stocks are expected to be at 208.3 versus 208.94 on the January report. With virtually no changes expected a modest 50-100 million bushel surprise could give the market some direction and excitement tomorrow. For today the daily range has only been 4 cents with the midday market just a penny above the low. On the March chart we slipped below the $3.67 50-day moving average on Friday and below the 20-day at $3.65 1/2 overnight which are now our two nearby resistance points. Support to note is $$3.60 then the $3.48 1/2 contract low. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday due to outside market weakness. Meal is fractionally higher and bean oil is down 55 points. With the Dow futures down over 300 points and crude lower outside markets are keeping buyers away for beans. The weekly export inspections were good for beans at 1.1723 million metric tons which has limited downside. Looking to tomorrow the average trade guess for the February USDA domestic carryover is for it to come in at 445 million bushels versus 440 on the January report. The world carryover is expected to be at 78.95 versus 79.28 million metric tons on the January report. Expectations are for a small reduction in South American production of around half a million tons between Argentina and Brazil. Any unexpected modest changes on the report could give us a bigger move. On the March soybean chart support is at $8.63 then the $8.52 early January low. Resistance is at the $8.76 1/2 20-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower across the three markets at midday with light bearish momentum. Kansas City inched to a new contract low on Friday and has extended down today. Minneapolis and Chicago have not traded to new lows, but contract lows are their nearby chart support at this juncture. The weekly export inspections were neutral at 398,216 tons. Looking to tomorrow morning the average trade guess for the February USDA domestic carryover is 947 million bushels versus 941 million on the January report. The global carryover is expected to be at 231.5 million metric tons versus 232.04 seen last month which was a new high for the crop year. On the March Kansas City chart the low Friday at $4.51 1/2 was a quarter cent below the contract low; this is now nearby resistance, then the 10-day at $4.64. The new contract low at $4.46 1/4 is current chart support to note at midday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.