DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/12 11:39

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/12 11:39 Grains Mixed at Midday We have a very narrowly mixed midday market to wrap up a slow week ahead of the three-day weekend. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are bouncing back with the Dow futures up 225 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 55 points higher. Energies are sharply higher with crude up $3, but we are still over $1 lower the week. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $11 giving back some of the $53 gains seen yesterday. CORN Corn trade is fractionally mixed at midday; this is another slow session with our overnight up to midday trading range less than 3 cents. Outside market support is limiting upside, but with limited fresh news we are not seeing buyers around either. The market has been in a quiet stalemate since the slightly negative USDA report on Tuesday. The weekly export sales were not supportive yesterday coming in below expectations at 405,000 metric tons but some fresh business this week has been talked about. The weekly EIA number Wednesday listed ethanol stocks 2.66% higher with production 1.04% higher and gas demand up which was not friendly news. And the monthly USDA report held a high carryover than expected giving us three days of negative news. Futures sold off 5 cents on the week going into the USDA numbers on Tuesday but have shown some resiliency from breaking much below $3.60. Market bulls at midday hope we can see some short profit taking heading into the long holiday weekend. Trade is closed on Monday due to the President's Day government holiday. On the March chart the $3.67 level is resistance where we find the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Support is at the $3.58 1/2 low printed yesterday and this morning then the $3.48 1/2 contract low. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday, meal is off $1.50 and bean oil is up 25 points. Soybean trade has been mixed with a trading range from a nickel lower to 2 cents higher. Bean oil is seeing spillover support from crude. The dollar has bounced back a bit, up 50, but is still going to finish the week poorly, which could lead to technical selling into the close this afternoon. This big move down in the dollar in February is significant; fi the trend continues it should be friendly for US commodities. On the March soybean chart nearby resistance at the $8.75 1/2 20-day, with the 100-day at $8.81 our resistance level above that. Support is at the $8.59 1/2 weekly low then the $8.52 early January low. The 20-day was challenged again today, it is our daily high at this juncture. If we find a reason to move above the 20-day this afternoon expect sizeable buy stops. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday gaining back some weekly losses. Most contracts at midday are only 2-6 cents lower on the week. The weekly export sales did not support the upside momentum we had going into Thursday so most do not expect buying interest to build this today, just see range bound trade The overnight up to midday range has been around 2 lower to 4 higher. The USDA numbers were negative on Tuesday particularly the growing global carryover which dashes most hopes for any real price optimism for 2016. Production disruption by weather or a sharp reduction in global wheat plantings is needed for this market to find a long term low. On the March Kansas City chart the previous low at $4.51 3/4 is chart resistance then the 10-day at $4.58. The high this morning is $4.51 1/2. The new contract low printed Tuesday at $4.42 1/4 is chart support which we did challenge overnight. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.