DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to move lower the second week of February 2016, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN.

Prices for all eight major fertilizers slipped compared to a month earlier, but only two fertilizers were down by any consequence. Anhydrous dropped 5% compared to last month and averaged $551 per ton. UAN32 was also down 5% compared to the second week of January, averaging $303 per ton

The remaining six fertilizers were lower, but just slightly. DAP averaged $479/ton, MAP $499/ton, potash $378/ton, urea $369/ton, 10-34-0 $569/ton and UAN28 $261/ton.

MAP dropped to under $500 per ton for the first time in almost six years. The last time the fertilizer's price was sub-$500 per ton was the second week of March 2010, when the retail price was at $498 per ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.40/lb.N, anhydrous $0.34/lb.N, UAN28 $0.47/lb.N and UAN32 $0.47/lb.N.

Some farmers continue to hesitate on additional fertilizer purchases as long as retail prices are on the decline.

Jason Scott, who farms near Burrows, Indiana, said he already applied some fertilizer last fall. He applied potash and MAP before he chiseled and has not bought any more fertilizer since.

"I am going to wait to buy starter and nitrogen when I will use it," Scott told DTN. "Part of the reason is to wait and hope it keeps getting cheaper. The other reason is I still have lots of grain in storage and it has not been converted to liquid money."

Scott said he normally has more grain sold by this time of year, and he would have also prepaid for some fertilizer before the end of the year to lock up some supplies and also for tax purposes. Storing unpriced grain, however, changes his strategy, he said.

Many farmers, at least in his home area of north-central Indiana, continue to wait to purchase their fertilizer needs. Profit concerns are behind farmers' hesitance to lock in fertilizer.

"Whoever has the cheapest price -- and I'm confident they can supply me -- is going to get my business," he said. "Loyalty for a supplier only goes so far when margins are tight."

Retail fertilizers have been slipping since the second half of 2015. All but one fertilizer is now double digits lower. The only fertilizer not down much is 10-34-0, which is down 3%.

DAP is now 16% lower, MAP is 17% less expensive, UAN32 is 18% lower and UAN28 is 21% less expensive from a year previous. Both urea and anhydrous are all now 22% lower while potash is 23% less expensive compared to a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

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