DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/08 11:36

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/08 11:36 Grains Trading Higher at Midday Trade is higher across the board at midday after early weakness. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 40 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 5 lower. Energies are weaker with crude down 1.21. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are narrowly mixed. CORN Corn is mostly 3 cents higher across the board at midday with light upside momentum lead by the March contract, which is up 6. Trade is thin on March though with the open interest down to less than 4,000 contracts versus May which has open interest over 650,000 contracts. Some of this strength appears to be short profit taking ahead of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The average trade guess is for the March domestic carryover to rise to 1.860 billion bushels versus 1.837 on the February report, the range of estimates is 1.807 to 1.937 billion. The global carryover is also expected to rise slightly to 209.2 million metric tons versus 208.8 on the February report. On the May chart support is at the contract low of $3.54 1/4 with resistance at the 20-day at $3.63 then the 50-day at $3.66. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 cents higher at midday with trade shaking off early losses tied to South American harvest pressure. Meal is $1 to $2 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The South American weather is getting less important with harvest moving along with increasing shipments as the port backlog gets worked on. Domestic basis will likely stay steady into midweek and react to board movement after the USDA report. The USDA March carryover is expected to come in at 457 million bushels versus 450 expected, with the global carryover expected to be at 81 million metric tons versus 80.4 on the February report. So this is expected to be a very uneventful report. The USDA announced old-crop sales of 70,000 metric tons to unknown, and new crops sales of 70,000 to unknown, and 110,000 to China. This has helped beans here at midday to be 8 cents above our session lows. On the May soybean chart support is the 50-day moving average at $8.74, with the February high at $8.90 notable resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 3 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with spillover support from the row crops and light short profit taking. Export business continues to be the focus of the bear argument, which remains a very valid argument keeping US prices depressed. The heavy global supplies are a big weight on this market that is expected to continue beyond 2016 at this juncture. The average trade guess is for the USDA March report to have the domestic carryover at 975 million bushels versus 966 on the February report. Global carryover is expected to be slightly lower at 238.1 million metric tons versus 238.9 on the February report. On the May KC chart the 50-day moving average at $4.70 is support with the 20-day at $4.60 below there. The high yesterday at $4.78 is resistance than the 100-day at $4.89 above there. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.