DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/09 11:11

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/09 11:11 Grain Trade Mixed at Midday Trade is mixed at midday with soybeans stronger ahead of the WASDE report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 75 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 11 lower. Energies are stronger with crude down 1.25. Livestock trade is narrowly mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $5. CORN Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower in quiet trade ahead of the WASDE report. Position squaring should dominate trade ahead of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates due out at 11. The average trade guess is for the March domestic carryover to rise to 1.860 billion bushels versus 1.837 on the February report, the range of estimates is 1.807 to 1.937 billion. The global carryover is also expected to rise slightly to 209.2 million metric tons versus 208.8 on the February report. Blender margins continue to improve with unleaded gas trading ahead of ethanol for the first time since September. The weekly ethanol report showed production down 9,000 barrels per day, and stocks were 3% higher. On the May chart support is at the contract low of $3.54 1/4 with resistance at the 20-day at $3.63 then the 50-day at $3.66. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with light commercial buying ahead of the report. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 55 to 65 points higher. The energy complex has added support to the bean oil side of the complex. The South American weather is getting less important with harvest moving along with increasing shipments as the port backlog gets worked on. Domestic basis will likely stay steady into midweek and react to board movement after the USDA report. The USDA March carryover is expected to come in at 457 million bushels versus 450 expected, with the global carryover expected to be at 81 million metric tons versus 80.4 on the February report. So this is expected to be a very uneventful report. On the May soybean chart support is the 50-day moving average at $8.74, with the February high at $8.90 notable resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with trade seeing some light selling in low volume trade. Export business continues to be the focus of the bear argument, which remains a very valid argument keeping U.S. prices depressed. The ruble has firmed lately potentially helping the U.S. down the road if it can be sustained. The southwest Plains is expected to remain warm and dry in the near term as well. The heavy global supplies are a big weight on this market that is expected to continue beyond 2016 at this juncture. The average trade guess is for the USDA March report to have the domestic carryover at 975 million bushels versus 966 on the February report. Global carryover is expected to be slightly lower at 238.1 million metric tons versus 238.9 on the February report. On the May Kansas City chart, the 50-day moving average at $4.70 is support with the 20-day at $4.60 below there. The high Monday at $4.78 is resistance than the 100-day at $4.89 above there. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.