DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/16 11:18

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/16 11:18 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is lightly lower across the board at midday in slow action. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 20 points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 36 higher. Energies are higher with crude up 1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade with prices holding above the 50-day moving average. Ethanol margins remain tight to negative but a stronger energy complex this morning could be a sign of improving margins. The weekly ethanol production report showed 2.15% increase in production, stocks were 1.95% lower, with gasoline demand 0.05% higher. This has led to slightly higher ethanol futures trade at midday. Heavy rains in the Mississippi Delta are slowing planting progress with more rain showing in the extended forecasts. The large short position could help fuel a bigger move on strength. Basis has been fairly steady overall this week. On the May chart support is now at the 50-day moving average at $3.66 after we closed above it Monday. The 100---day at $3.77 3/4 is the next upside major moving average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with selling on South American harvest pressure hanging around. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points higher. South American harvest should continue to progress on a normal pace limiting near-term upside. Long lines at the ports and backups on the highway will likely persist for a while. The oil side of the crush complex has been the strongest lately, and will need to stay that way to support crush into spring. Basis has been fairly sideways in the near term. The USDA announced 100,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown. On the May soybean chart support is the 100-day moving average at $8.82, resistance is at the fresh 2-month high printed Monday at $8.97 then the 200-day at $9.05. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower across the three contracts at midday, although 2-3 cents off the morning lows. The Southern Plains look to stay dry in the near term, along with colder temperatures this weekend potentially dinging the crop a bit. Egypt devalued its currency, which will make further wheat imports more expensive. If the FED raises U.S. interest rates today, the dollar will likely continue to build strength at the expense of U.S. exports, which could be the main driver of trade late in the day. On the May Kansas City chart, the 100-day moving average at $4.87 is support which we have edged below this morning, and then the 50-day at $4.71. Resistance is at the $5.06 1/2 December high then the 200-day moving average at $5.14. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.