DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/21 11:58
21 Mar 2016
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/21 11:58 Triple-Digit Losses Hold in Feeder Cattle Trade Feeder cattle futures quickly adjusted lower Monday morning, picking up from the sharp losses seen Friday, as markets continue to ratchet lower, leaving traders concerned of further market liquidation over the coming sessions. Hog futures have followed the trend of feeder cattle futures with strong triple-digit losses despite light volume during the morning. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Sharp losses have quickly developed in both lean hog and feeder cattle futures as triple-digit pressure continue to hold at midday. The concern of weakness in beef and pork values short term seems to be quickly overshadowing any sense of seasonal market support at this point, causing widespread liquidation early in the week. Corn prices are higher. May corn futures are 1 1/2 cent higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 1 point higher while Nasdaq is up 2 points. LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures have backed away from strong early losses even though beef values remain under light pressure and strong triple-digit losses continue to hold across the feeder cattle complex. April live cattle futures are leading the market lower, trading 75 cents lower at midday while the rest of the market is holding losses of 40 to 60 cents lower, in very light trade volume. With no indication of additional fundamental market moves, there is likely to be some additional market shifts within a narrow range through the rest of the trading day. Cash cattle remain quiet with show lists mixed to slightly higher especially in the South following light to moderate activity late last week. Bids and asking prices are undeveloped and may be quiet through the early part of the week. Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.87 higher (select) and down $0.62 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 57 total loads reported (32 loads of choice cuts, 11 loads of select cuts, 5 loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Sharp triple-digit losses have redeveloped Monday morning as traders once again focus on the combination of the higher cattle placements and eroding beef values in cutout reports. Nearby contracts are holding losses between $2 and $2.30 per cwt at midday, but well off of session lows near $3 per cwt as traders focus on light trade volume during the Monday session. Light volume is likely to be seen through most of the week, limiting potential support over the near future. LEAN HOGS: Sharp triple-digit losses are holding in nearby lean hog futures with April through June futures holding losses of $1.60 to $1.70 per cwt at midday. The lack of support in the complex is a swift shift from the directionless moves seen last week despite the lack of change in overall market activity from last week. Spillover pressure from the cattle market is expected to have some additional market weakness in the hog market, creating some underlying pressure even though trade volume remains extremely light, and may limit trader's willingness to step into the market through the rest of the session. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $1.37 per cwt to $58.80 per cwt with the range from $58.72 to $62.50 per cwt on 3,031 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report reported 190 loads selling with prices up $0.34 per cwt. Lean hog index for 3/16 is at $66.78, unchanged with a projected two-day index of $66.61, down 0.17. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (ES) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.