DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/30 11:19

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/30 11:19 All Grains Lower at Midday Wheat leads trade lower at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 100 points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 37 lower. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade is lower with cattle sharply lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $8. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade turning lower in the negative ag trade this morning after making a new high at $3.74. The weekly ethanol report showed production 0.30 percentage points lower, stocks were 2.23% higher, with gasoline demand down 2.73%. Weather will have a bigger effect on what this market does in April and May to either grow our comfortable supplies, or lower them for the 2016-17 crop year. But for this week the market is focused on Thursday. The numbers would need to come out outside of the range of expectations on the low side to spark a rally, and if we acreage would come in at 91 million or higher, we could quickly challenge the contract lows on Thursday. The average trade guess is for the 2016 US corn acreage to be at 90.047 million acres, the range of estimates is 89-91.5 million. The March 1 Corn stocks are expected to be at 7.822 billion bushels versus 7.75 billion a year ago. The range of estimates is 7.745-8.1 billion. On the May chart, support is at the 50-day moving average at $3.67 then the 20-day at $3.65. Resistance is the 100---day at $3.74 which we touched this morning. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade following the other markets llower after some intial strength. Meal is $1 to $2 lower, and oil is 20 to 30 points lower after making new highs yesterday. On the May soybean chart we remain above all the major moving averages Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is the five-month high at $9.17 1/2 which we tested overnight followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4. The average trade guess for the 2016 Planting intentions is 82.95 million acres verus 82.65 a year ago, the range of estimates is 81.6-84.2 million. The quarterly stocks are estimated to be at 1.569 billion bushels versus 1.327 a year ago, the range of expectations is 1.525-1.7. WHEAT Wheat trade has turned sharply lower during the day trade, down 8 to 16 cents with expanded moisture for the Southern Plains in the extended forecast. The dollar has moved back to the lower end of the range, but isn't adding much support this morning. The Kansas weekly crop ratings were 57% good to excellent down 1%. The full reports should start next Monday, April 4. World supplies remain ample which will limit bigger rallies even with the US acreage down. The average trade guess for the total wheat planted acreage is at 51.659 million acres versus 54.644 a year ago. Spring wheat is only expected to be down slightly at 12.905 million versus 13.246 million a year ago. The March 1 Quarterly stocks are expected to be at a large 1.356 billion versus 1.140 billion bushels last March. On the May KC chart the 50-day moving average at 4.71 is support but we have falled through that area this morning, with resistance at the $4.82 100-day then the $4.90 1/2 high printed on 3-15. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.