DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/05 11:17

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/05 11:17 Soybeans Leading Grains Lower at Midday Grain trade is mixed again at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 65 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 20 points higher. Energies are narrowly mixed following the drop yesterday to a one-month low in crude down to $37 down $6 from the March high. Livestock trade is active and mixed with hogs higher and cattle sharply lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $11 CORN Corn trade is fractionally to a penny higher at midday in slow trade, the trading range has been 3 cents. The oversupplied market provides a back drop for lower volatility this year. Many comments came up about the huge move on Thursday following the bearish USDA March Planting Intentions number, but we need to remember a 15 cent move was common place for many days over the past 10 years. The first USDA 2016-17 balance sheets should have a carryover close to 2.2 billion bushels using the 93.6 million acre planted number. This should limit volatility and price movement. A bear market is the bias, but we need to plant and grow the crop. So we should get used to slower trading ranges as we move forward in 2016 not discounting the need to watch the weather. On the May chart support is at the fresh low at $3.47 1/4 with the 10-day at $3.63 1/2 resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday after trading 6 lower earlier this morning. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and bean oil down 50 points. The bean oil correction is noted for our lower midday soybean trad. Market bears are arguing this week that the March rally has priced-in friendly items even thought both the stocks and acreage numbers last Thursday were friendly. The overall global and domestic comfortable supply side situation was not threatened by the USDA reports, so fundamental buyers are not expected this week with futures around five-month highs. On the May soybean chart we remain above all the major moving averages. Support is at the $9.04 200-day moving average which is the highest major moving average. Resistance is the $9.22 high reached overnight followed by the seven-month high at $9.29 1/4. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday across the three exchanges. Trade has been mixed with a range of 3 higher to 4 lower. The trading range reflects mixed weather opinions but not major problems at this juncture. The USDA gave us a really friendly acreage number last week, but with such a comfortable domestic and global supply status market bulls have not been able to gain momentum from that news. Even with lower production the U.S. carryover is not expected to rise at this time. Weather needs to give us U.S. as we move forward this month. On the May Kansas City chart the 50-day moving average at 4.71 remains support with recent highs at $4.90 chart resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.