DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/19 11:02
19 Apr 2016
DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/19 11:02 Grains Higher at Midday Soybeans surged higher at midday, leading corn and wheat higher. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 55 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 50 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up 1.30. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $20. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with broad-based commodity buying helping to push trade into new highs for the move. Planting progress will slow down with rains moving across much of the Corn Belt this week, but above-normal temperatures should get planters back in the field sooner rather than later over much of the belt. The weekly planting progress came in at 13% vs. 7% a year ago, and 8% on average. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern with second-crop acres in Brazil warm and dry with pollentation ongoing. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable with ethanol futures rising with corn values. Basis should be steady with reduced farmer movement. The market is seeing some bear-spreading today with December corn moving back to a dime of carry. USDA announced 241,516 of corn sold to unknown. On the chart we will call $3.75 nearby support, than the $3.70 1/4 100-day followed by the 20-day at $3.66. The $3.86 high seen this morning is nearby resistance then the 200-day at $3.87. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 20 to 25 cents higher at midday with aggressive buying surfacing this morning. Meal is $9 to $10 higher and oil is 50 to 60 points higher. The momentum at midday has tapered for now. Argentina harvest looks to remain slow, while Brazil is in the wrapping up phase of harvest with prime shipment season getting going. USDA announced 380,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to Mexico, mostly new crop, with 105,412 of meal sold to unknown. Basis has softened with increased farmer movement on the rally but could improve later in the month while planters roll. Some early soybeans have started to be planted in the Southern areas, but planting progress reports remain a couple weeks off. On the May soybean chart, the 10-day at $9.37 then the 20-day at 9.24 are support. The $9.82 high from this morning is nearby resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 9 to 12 cents higher at midday across the three contracts following the lead of the crop crops with support from the weaker dollar. Rains fell across much of the Southern Plains, with very heavy amounts in some areas, and disappointing amounts in other with central to eastern Kansas in line for showers over the next week, with temperatures warming up again. Stripe rust has been noted through much of Kansas. European growth will be slowed with unseasonably cold temperatures, with warm, dry weather continuing in India. Crop conditions showed 1% improvement to 57% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor with 12% headed vs. 15% on average. Spring wheat was 27% planted vs. 31% last year and 19% on average. On the May KC chart the 10-day moving average at $4.56 is now support after we moved above that area Monday then the 20-day at $4.66 which we moved through this morning. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.