DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/05 11:23

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/05 11:23 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is lower across the board at midday after early strength. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher, with the Dow up 30. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 55 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 1.10. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with the strong dollar and disappointing exports dragging trade lower after early strength. The significant chart item to note here is July closed below the 20-day for the second day in a row; this is a negative chart item, if further weakness surfaces today it could accelerate selling. The July 50-day and 100-day are in between $3.72 1/2 and $3.74, they are the lowest major moving averages and we testing that area at midday. We should expect buy stops below there. Weather gives us a few planting delays but as a whole we both have a good planting window and warmer conditions will be ideal. Ethanol margins should be supported if the crude oil rally is sustained this morning. The weekly export sales were disappointing with 769,300 metric tons of old crop, and 60,500 of new. On the July chart resistance is at the $3.81 20-day then the $3.86 1/2 200-day with the 50-day and 100-day, noted above, our notable support levels. Monthly USDA numbers are due out next Tuesday, expected so show heavy supply side items. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 7 to 12 cents lower after trade failed to hold early strength, triggering additional selling. Meal is $4 to $5 lower and oil is narrowly mixed. The trend remains higher despite volatile action this week but a poor finish today would turn the chart lower. The 10-day and highest major moving average now at $10.26, but we have edged below that at midday, which could trigger more selling later in the day. The market will start to focus on saturated areas where corn planting could get late and move to beans, otherwise for the start of May the planting progress is a fairly neutral market item. Increased acres from corn could become more of a factor due to our recent price rise. The weekly export sales were strong at 815,800 metric tons of old crop, 430,000 of new crop, 152,700 of meal, and 10,000 of oil. On the July soybean chart the 10-day moving average is support with resistance at the $10.57 high printed on Monday. WHEAT Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade setting back along with the row crops as the wheat tour continues to find good yield potential. Supplies are big, but prices are low, so the risk reward in shorts in case of some weather issue favors the long side versus new shorts at the new contract lows made this morning. The Kansas wheat tour will continue through the end of the week, with a mix of disease and strong yield potential found so far. World weather remains fairly benign, although the Canadian prairie has been pretty dry this spring. The weekly export sales were soft again at 178,400 metric tons of old crop, and 140,000 of new crop. The July Kansas City chart has resistance at the $4.73 20-day with support at the recent and contract lows printed this morning at $4.50 1/2. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.