DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 11:42

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/09 11:42 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is seeing pressure at midday ahead of the USDA monthly report due out Tuesday at 11. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed, with the Dow futures down 50. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index was 15 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $1. Livestock trade is mixed with Cattle up $1 to $2.50, Feeders up $4 and hogs $1 lower. Precious metals are lower with gold off $30. CORN Corn trade is 6 cents lower at midday with spillover pressure from beans and outside markets. The main note is the expected larger carryover on the May USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ("WASDE") due out tomorrow morning at 11. The average trade guess is for the old crop carryover to come in at 1.825 billion bushels versus 1.862 on the April report; the range of estimates is 1.63-1.89 billion bushels. The new crop 2016-17 first balance sheet of the year is expected to show a whopping 2.228 billion bushels with a range of 1.64-2.55 billion bushels. The new crop global carryover is expected to be at 210.4 versus 206.2 expected on old crop. The weekly export inspections were at the high side of estimates at 1.142 million tons which has limited downside. On the July chart we have dropped below all major moving averages so the 100-day at $3.74 and 50-day at $3.73 are resistance with support at the $3.66 lower Bollinger ban. Planting progress this afternoon is expected to remain ahead of normal. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 10-13 cents lower at midday, meal is off $5 and bean oil down 30 points due to position squaring ahead of the WASDE tomorrow morning. Outside market are also weak with downside crude moementum at midday, which may influence additional pressure this afternoon. The weekly export inspections were only 111,314 tons. On the USDA report the old-crop domestic carryover is expected to be at 428 million bushels versus 445 on the April report. The new crop carryover is expected to be at 427 with a huge range of 248-748 million bushels; so this number will be watched closely and likely the source of volatility tomorrow. The global carryover estimate is expectd to be at 73.4 million metric tons, down from the 76.1 million tons on old crop. This also is a big number to watch tomorrow. The 10-day moving average at $10.30 is first support with the highs from last week at $10.57 resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with some new contract lows again seen on Kansas City. Spillover pressure from beans and outside markets have trade lower along with large new-crop supply side expectations. The Kansas wheat tour pegged production at 384.2 million bushels in Kansas, well ahead of the last USDA projections at 316 million. World weather remains fairly benign, although the Canadian Prairie has been pretty dry this spring. The report tomorrow is expected to show old-crop carryover at 978 million bushels versus 976 on the April report on old crop, with the new crop carryover pegged at 991 million. The global new-crop carryover is expected to come in at a whopping 243.6 million metric ton up from the 239.6 old crop number. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show small improvement in winter wheat conditions, with maturity around normal. Spring wheat is expected to remain well ahead normal on planting progress. The weekly export inpsections were good at 497 thousand tons which has limited downside. The July KC chart has resistance at the $4.64 10-day with support to mention limited due to our downside momentum at contract lows here at midday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.