DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/10 11:04

DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/10 11:04 Grains Mixed at Midday Row crops are higher ahead of the WASDE report release with beans leading the way. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher, with the Dow futures up 170. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is narrowly mixed. Energies are higher with crude up $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold off $4. CORN Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday in quiet action ahead of the WASDE report. Beans and outside markets are providing support, expectations for big supply side numbers are providing pressure. The main note for the report is the expected larger carryover on the first new crop balance sheet on the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) due out at 11. The average trade guess is for the old-crop carryover to come in at 1.825 billion bushels versus 1.862 on the April report; the range of estimates is 1.63-1.89 billion bushels. The new crop 2016-17 first balance sheet of the year is expected to show a whopping 2.228 billion bushels with a range of 1.64-2.55 billion bushels. The new crop global carryover is expected to be at 210.4 versus 206.2 expected on old crop. Ethanol margins are fairly stable with corn in the lower end of the recent range, and unleaded and crude holding in the upper end of the range. On the July chart we have dropped below all major moving averages so the 100-day at $3.74 and 50-day at $3.73 are resistance with support at the $3.66 lower Bollinger band. The weekly crop progress report showed 64% planted vs. 69% last year, and 50% on average with 27% emerged vs. 23% last year and 17% on average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 10 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying ahead of the report, with additional support from Brazilian gov't agency CONAB cutting soybean production to 96.9 million metric tons and ouside markets. Meal is $5 to $6 higher, and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. The USDA announced 20,000 metric tons of oil sold to unknown and 40,000 to China. On the USDA report the old crop domestic carryover is expected to be at 428 million bushels versus 445 on the April report. The new crop carryover is expected to be at 427 with a huge range of 248-748 million bushels; so this number will be watched closely and likely the source of volatility tomorrow. The global carryover estimate is expected to be at 73.4 million metric tons, down from the 76.1 million tons on old crop. This also is a big number to watch tomorrow. The weekly crop progress report showed 23% planted vs. 26% last year and 16% on average. The 10-day moving average at 10.29 is first resistance which we have moved through at midday with the low from last week at 10.18 first support. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with quiet action ahead of the report with spillover support from beans limiting upside. World weather remains benign, although the Canadian prairie has been pretty dry this spring and need moisture this month. The report is expected to show old crop carryover at 978 million bushels versus 976 on the April report on old crop, with the new crop carryover pegged at 991 million. The global new crop carryover is expected to come in at a whopping 243.6 million metric ton up from the 239.6 old crop number. The weekly crop progress report showed 62% of winter wheat good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, up 1 percentage point on the week. Winter wheat was 57% headed, 5 percentage point ahead of average. Spring wheat is 77% planted vs. 84% year ago, and 51% on average, with emergence at 39% vs. 47% year ago and 25% on average. The July Kansas City chart has resistance at the $4.61 10-day with support to mention limited due to our downside momentum. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.