DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/19 11:23
19 May 2016
DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/19 11:23 All Grains Trading Lower at Midday Markets are sharply lower at midday with broad commodity weakness. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 180 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 27 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down 1.10. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $20. CORN Corn trade is 10 to 13 cents lower at midday with commodities setting back across the board with the sharply stronger dollar after the Fed indicated that interest rates could rise as soon as June. Planting and early crop development weather looks more open for planting the balance of this week and warmer temperatures welcome. Wetter weather is expected to return next week so we should be down to 10% area left, boosting growth on planted acres. Ethanol margins are under pressure this morning with the set back in energy prices. Corn basis has been steady to a bit softer through midweek due to the price rise and farmer movement during the rain delays. The weekly export sales were strong again with 1.47 million metric tons of old crop, and 540,700 of new crop. On the July chart the 200-day and 20-day moving averages are support at $3.85 which we are just above at midday. Resistance is at the $4.07 April high which is our six-month high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 15 to 20 cents lower at midday with selling returning taking soybeans back to the low end of the post report range. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 115 to 125 points lower. The broader commodity weakness may trigger additional selling later today. The old crop again is gaining on new in the spread trade supported by solid nearby demand and talk of added soybean acreage. Soybean planting should accelerate this weekend ahead of pending rains next week. The weekly export sales were decent at 556,400 metric tons of old crop, 158,300 of new, 73,000 of old meal, 92,100 of new meal, and 89,500 of oil. USDA also announced 129,000 metric tons sold to China. Resistance on July beans is at the $10.91 high reached last week then $11. Support is at the $10.64 10-day then the $10.44 20-day, which we are between at midday. WHEAT Wheat trade is 5 to 16 cents lower with spillover pressure from the broader commodity weakness and the sharply stronger dollar. World weather is good with only isolated areas of concern, and better moisture for much of the dry Canadian Prairie in the forecast. Feed wheat is more competitive than it has been, which should help trade to find additional usage especially with the bump up in corn prices this month. The U.S. export picture remains bleak, which will continue to be a wet blanket for the bulls. Weekly export sales were mixed at 175,200 metric tons of old crop, 573,500 of new crop. The July Kansas City chart is back below the 10-day at $4.51, making support the low at $4.41. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.