DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/21 11:20

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/21 11:20 Grains Lower at Midday on Tuesday Trade is lower across the board at midday, the latest forecasts are providing reason for the market to reduce weather premium. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments U.S. stock market indices are higher with the DOW futures up 220 points. Interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 25 points higher. Energies are lower this morning with crude down $.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $18.00. CORN Corn futures are 15 to 19 cents lower at midday with trade remaining soft due to rains in the Western Corn Belt overnight. The Eastern Corn Belt forecasts are for better rains this week as well. On the break, we filled the gap around $4.20 on the December contract, picking up stops below that level, giving us negative midday momentum. Traders will continue to watch forecasts with some concern about above normal temperatures. Ethanol margins should get a boost from the setback in corn. The weekly crop condition numbers left conditions unchanged at 75% good to excellent and 4% poor to very poor; this kept buyers away last night. There were no crop progress numbers with planting viewed as complete, and pollination/silking the next numbers we will start to receive each week. On the July chart support is at the 50-day average of $3.99, after falling through the 20-day of $4.20, which is now resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean futures are 10 to 16 cents lower at midday due to improved weather forecasts and spillover pressure from corn. Meal is $6 to $7 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. If weather continues to improve, we may have printed our highs here in beans. The most important time for beans is late July and August, which is why corn is getting hit harder today since the next six weeks are the most important for corn. Rain makes grain and widespread late June rains would be viewed as favorable for the crop if they verify. The front-month spreads are firm, indicating that commercial demand remains solid for beans. The weekly crop condition numbers were down 1% at 73% good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor. Progress was listed at 96% planted versus 89% last week, and 93% on average. Emergence was at 89% versus 81% last year, and 84% on average. USDA announced 40,000 metric tons of soy oil sold to China, 132,000 mt of soybeans to China, and 126,000 mt to unknown. On the July soybean chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $11.32, with resistance now the 10-day at $11.60. WHEAT Wheat futures are 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with spillover pressure from row crops, and harvest pressure, along with the firmer dollar this morning. Trade is nearing contract lows on KC wheat. Winter wheat harvest will move along fast this week with warm weather and limited moisture for most of the belt, and yields have been very strong so far. Feed wheat will continue to get more competitive on the world market, which is needed with the big fundamental supply overhang. The weekly progress report had winter wheat at 61% good to excellent, with 9% poor to very poor, unchanged on the week. Harvest progress was 25% complete, 3% behind average. Spring wheat was 76% good to excellent, 4% poor to very poor, down 3% on the week. Heading was 28%, 14% ahead of normal, and 9% ahead of last year. On the July KC chart the 20-day and lowest major moving average is resistance at $4.63 with support at the $4.41 1/4 contract low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.