DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/30 11:16

DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/30 11:16 Corn, Beans Lower at Midday Trade is flat to lower at midday ahead of the report with chart selling and a negative weather bias By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 121 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $4.10. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower as we near the 11 a.m. release of the USDA June 1 Quarterly Stocks numbers and June Planting Intentions report. The weather forecast continues to hold rains in the forecasts for many of the dry areas Ethanol margins should continue to support near term grind. Trade will continue to position for the report ahead tomorrow, with 2016 US Corn Planted acreage expected to be at 92.76 million acres versus 93.6 on the March report and 88 million a year ago; the range of estiamtes is 92-94 million. The June 1 Quarterly Stocks are expected to be at 4.528 billion versus 4.453 a year ago; the range of estimates is 4.437-4.625 billion. Weekly export sales met expectations of 468,500 metric tons of old corn, 536,100 of new crop. On the December chart support is at the the $3.82 1/2 low printed Friday and tested today. Resistance is the 200-day moving at $3.96, with the 50-day at $4.06 above that. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade backing away from dime higher trade overnight during the day session. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. Better rains should help growth in some of the dry areas through the weekend. Argentina is looking at a good reduction in acres as governmental policies change. The average trade guess for the revised USDA 2016 soybean planted area is 83.969 million acres versus 82.236 on the March report, this is a huge March to June change due to the rise in price. The range of estimates is 82.6-85.7. The June 1 Quarterly Stocks are expected to come in at 833 million bushels versus 627 million a year ago; the range of estimates is 784-862 million. Expect a very wild day and likely follow-through day on Friday with a long holiday weekend of important summer weather ahead. The weekly export sales were very good at 730,000 metric tons of old crop soybeans, 798,000 of new crop, 115,500 of old crop meal, 44,100 of new crop meal, and 62,400 of oil. On the November soybean chart support is at the 50-day at $10.70, resistance is at the 20-day at 11.24. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday with trade waiting for guidance from the row crops and the USDA numbers. Winter wheat harvest should continue to progress quickly with some limited disruptions due to rain. Spring wheat conditions will have to be watched with a substantial set back in conditions the last two weeks, and a mixed weather forecat going forward for the Dakotas with more of South Dakota showing on the drought monitor. Russian harvest should continue to make good progress with generally good yields to start as well, keeping the global supply pressure building in the near term. Some spring wheat areas are a bit short of moisture in the former Soviet Union but nothing widespread. The report is expected to be negative with all wheat acres at 49.86 million, and June 1 quarterly stocks are expected to be at 982 million bushels versus 752 a year ago. The weekly export sales improved at 645,300 metric tons. On the September Kansas City chart, the 10-day and lowest major moving average is resistance at $4.44 with support at the $4.18 fresh contract low. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.