DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/01 11:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/01 11:52 All Grains Lower at Midday Weak trade at midday following less threatening forecasts and bearish USDA numbers yesterday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 45 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 52 points lower. Energies are flat to lower. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher and cattle lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $17. CORN Corn trade is a nickel lower at midday and near the daily lows. This has December corn within 2 cents of the contract low and major support; expect sell stops below $3.64. The USDA provided bearish news yesterday with the acreage and stocks numbers above the highs side estimates, not just higher than expected, deliverying bearish supply side information. At the end of the day, the spring-into-early-summer rally did what rallies should do, ration usage (higher than expected stocks number) and stimulate production (higher planted acreage). Momentum is down at midday but we may find buying this afternoon adding weather premium back into the market due to the low 4th of July holiday weekend. Chart support is at $3.64 on the December contract with resitance at $3.82 then the lowest major moving average, the 100-day, at $3.92. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is down 13 on November at midday which has us near our daily lows, meal is down around $2 and bean oil is mixed. The USDA acreage number was supportive versus expectations, but considering the big gains yesterday, the friendly items appears to be priced-in. The weather the next two months is now the most important market influence. Normal to better than normal weather will suggest prices are too high, with harmful heat and dryness keeping the market supported. The USDA stocks number was higher than expected illustrating there was some demand rationing. The higher prices provided more planted acreage, just not as much as the market was expecting. The USDA June planting intentions came in at 83.688 million acres versus 83.969 million expected but well above the March 82.23 million acre number. On the November soybean chart support is at the $11.28 20-day moving average, momentum is down at midday but we are holding the uptrend. Expect sell stops below the 20-day, and buy stops aboe the $11.60 3/4 high reached yesterday. So far this is just an inside trading day near the upper end of the report day trading range. WHEAT Wheat trade is seeing pressure with prices down 14 cents on Chicago, 8 on Kansas City and 4 on Minneapolis. The weak row crops and negative USDA numbers Thursday are behind the midday weakness as we approach the long holiday weekend. The total wheat acreage number was at 50.8 million acres versus 49.7 million expected. Spring wheat was up nearly 500,000 acres at 12.1. The quarterly June 1 stocks were on line with expectations, but supply side items that are burdensome are growing more due to both the acreage, but also some huge yield numbers as the winter wheat harvest continues. On the KC December chart support is at the $4.28 1/2 lower Bollinger Band with resistance at $4.63, the 10-day moving average. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.