By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter
OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for fertilizers continued to move lower the last week of June 2016, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks three weeks in a row fertilizer prices have been notably lower.
All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price compared to the previous month. However, the only fertilizer to show a significant move was UAN32. The liquid nitrogen fertilizer was down 5% compared to the previous month and had an average price of $304 per ton.
The remaining seven fertilizers were lower in price from last month, but their moves were fairly small. DAP had an average price of $468/ton, MAP $495/ton, potash $358/ton, urea $365/ton, 10-34-0 $554/ton, anhydrous $566/ton and UAN28 $266/ton
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.40/lb.N, anhydrous $0.34/lb.N, UAN28 $0.47/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.
China's potash inventory is expected to remain high for the rest of 2016, which will decrease imports and depress the global potash price, according to a Dow Jones article. China is the largest potash consumer in the world with 27% of the global demand, which means changes in Chinese imports would have an effect on global potash prices.
China's imports of potash declined by 10% year-on-year (yoy) to 3.0 million metric tons (mmt) in the first five months of 2016 with total import value dropping 17%. The average import price is at a historical low.
Fitch Ratings told Dow Jones it believes the high inventory is primarily associated with weaker domestic demand, rising domestic output and aggressive imports in previous years. China imported 8 mmt of potash in 2014 and 9.4 mmt in 2015, which represented growth of 33% yoy and 17% yoy.
In addition, China's domestic potash output in 2015 rose by 8.6% yoy to around 9.5 mmt. Fitch said they expect China's domestic production to remain high as the Chinese government has a target of achieving 70% self-sufficiency in potash fertilizer production by 2020, compared to 60% now, Dow Jones reported.
Retail prices for all fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to a year ago. 10-34-0 is 14% lower while MAP is 17% less expensive. DAP and UAN32 are both 18% lower. Both anhydrous and UAN28 are 20% lower while urea is 22% lower. Potash is 27% less expensive compared to last year.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The weekly charts are cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.
DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):
| DRY |
| Date Range | DAP | MAP | POTASH | UREA |
| June 29-July 3 2015 | 570 | 596 | 490 | 469 |
| July 27-31 2015 | 569 | 594 | 487 | 469 |
| Aug 24-28 2015 | 567 | 586 | 476 | 447 |
| Sept 21-25 2015 | 562 | 575 | 454 | 428 |
| Oct 19-23 2015 | 547 | 562 | 435 | 413 |
| Nov 16-20 2015 | 545 | 559 | 424 | 403 |
| Dec 14-18 2015 | 532 | 544 | 410 | 392 |
| Jan 11-15 2016 | 495 | 521 | 391 | 381 |
| Feb 8-12 2016 | 479 | 499 | 378 | 369 |
| Mar 7-11 2016 | 477 | 494 | 372 | 378 |
| Apr 4-8 2016 | 480 | 504 | 369 | 387 |
| May 2-6 2016 | 475 | 502 | 366 | 385 |
| May 30-June 3 2016 | 473 | 499 | 363 | 375 |
| June 27-July 1 2016 | 468 | 495 | 358 | 365 |
| LIQUID |
| Date Range | 10-34-0 | ANHYD | UAN28 | UAN32 |
| June 29-July 3 2015 | 642 | 705 | 330 | 369 |
| July 27-31 2015 | 636 | 689 | 324 | 354 |
| Aug 24-28 2015 | 609 | 667 | 309 | 350 |
| Sept 21-25 2015 | 589 | 646 | 297 | 343 |
| Oct 19-23 2015 | 582 | 637 | 291 | 334 |
| Nov 16-20 2015 | 579 | 629 | 287 | 332 |
| Dec 14-18 2015 | 571 | 612 | 279 | 331 |
| Jan 11-15 2016 | 572 | 581 | 272 | 319 |
| Feb 8-12 2016 | 569 | 551 | 261 | 303 |
| Mar 7-11 2016 | 562 | 541 | 262 | 312 |
| Apr 4-8 2016 | 561 | 586 | 272 | 315 |
| May 2-6 2016 | 560 | 589 | 274 | 321 |
| May 30-June 3 2016 | 559 | 579 | 268 | 313 |
| June 27-July 1 2016 | 554 | 566 | 266 | 304 |
Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com
(AG/SK)
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