DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/26 11:38

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/26 11:38 Beans, Corns Lower at Midday Some warmer forecasts have beans seeing double-digit gains at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 45 points. The interest rate products are flat to lower. The dollar index is 9 points lower. Energies are mixed. Livestock trade has hogs mixed and cattle and feeders higher. Precious metals are flat to higher. CORN Corn trade fractionally higher at midday and near the daily high; trade has been slow with a range from around 4 cents lower to a penny higher. The day to day price ranges should begin to lessen with heavy supplies weighing on the market. Rains this week should help improve marketplace certainty that the corn yield will hold up and we have a shot at a record yield. The weekly crop condition report showed conditions unchanged at 76% good to excellent, and only 5% poor to very poor. The crop ratings a year ago were 6% worse at 70% good to excellent, and two years ago crop ratings were also worse than this year, around 73% good to excellent. The 2014 yield was our record at 171 bushels per acre; so if crop ratings are the bar, we will see record yields this fall with normal August weather. So let's expect some yield estimates ahead of the August report, due out two weeks from this Friday, around 171-174 bushels per acre. For today though, beans are providing spillover support to corn and the weather forcasts are sugguesting that adding weather premium is warranted. On the December contract support is the contract low at $3.33 1/4. Resistance is the 10-day moving average at $3.53; then the 20-day at $3.60. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 12-15 cents higher with the market gaining back some of the Monday losses. Meal is $5 higher and bean oil is up 25 points. Outside markets are mixed. Soybean trade is adding back a little weather premium with some warmer extended forcasts versus yesterday. The weekly progress and condition report had conditions unchanged at 71% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor. Progress numbers listed 76% of the crop blooming versus 66% on average, and 35% setting pods versus 26% on average. The numbers supported the lower futures trade over the past week. The USDA yield estimate could inch higher on the August report based on the good condition of the crop. If yields would rise, there is still a heavy supply side market picure ahead, plus 2017 acreage would likely be up if soybean prices hold around or above $10. Seasonally the bears get in control of the market late summer into the harvest season, so the market needs to find a reason to change this seasonally otherwise the current downtrend could hold into month end at the end of this week. On the November soybean chart support is at the $9.63 3-month recent low, then the 200-day moving average at 9.53, with resistance at the 10-day moving average at $10.27. WHEAT Wheat trade has not found follow-through buying off the strength yesterday and is down 7-10 cents at midday. The heavy world and domestic supplies continue to limit upside in wheat. Some buying wheat versus selling bean spreading supported wheat the past week, but the fear of hot August weather appears to have quickly scared some spreaders out of position today. The weekly progress report had winter wheat 83% harvested versus 79% on average. Spring wheat conditions were down 1 percentage point to 68% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor. This was not a surprise and spring wheat should stay supported versus winter wheat contracts. On the Kansas City December chart support is the 10-day and 20-day moving averages around $4.42, with the 50-day resistance at 4.74. The market is testing support at midday. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.