DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/02 11:40

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/02 11:40 All Grains Lower at Midday Soybean and corn make fresh lows this morning, dragging wheat lower as well. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 105 points. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 60 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold 13.00 higher. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with fresh lows being made amid milder weather forecasts and broad commodity weakness. Ethanol margins for producer and blender are under pressure with sliding energy markets. Crude dropped below $40 for the first time since April on Monday, but at midday we are back below that level. Ethanol futures are down a penny. Export business will be watched closely with the U.S. trade having a competitive advantage on the world market. The weekly crop progress noted 91% of the crop pollinating versus the 85% average; 30% was in the dough stage versus the 25% average. Crop ratings remained at 76% good to excellent, but 1 percentage point moved from good to excellent, and 1 percentage point from fair to poor. The crop ratings have the market thinking a bigger yield number will be seen on the monthly USDA report next Friday. The futures are pricing that in with this weakness. December 2017 appears to be finding support around $3.65 which many view is at or below the cost of production. On the December contract support is the contract low at $3.30 3/4 printed today. Resistance is the 10-day moving average at $3.40; then the 20-day at $3.49. The nearby September contract low is $3.21, within 3 censt of the multi year nearby low seen two years ago. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 12 to 16 cents lower at midday due to follow-through selling after the negative day yesterday; weather continues to be viewed as negative. Meal is down $7.50 and bean oil is up 25 points. Rains in the western belt this morning pressured trade once the day session began. New lows for the move were seen again morning after testing the 200-day at $9.55 overnight. This is now chart resisance. The weekly progress report this afternoon showed 54% of the crop setting pods versus the 44% average pace. Crop ratings were up 1% at 72% good to excellent versus 63% a year ago. The daily export wire has been active lately with five days of announcements in a row with China buying 252,000 metric tons of new crop this morning. On the November soybean chart, support was the 200-day at $9.55 which we broke this mrong, the lower Bolliger band at $9.31 is support now. Sell stops were run this morning after the 200-day failed. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents lower at midday with weak row crop trade erasing early strength tied to the weaker dollar. The heavy world and domestic supplies will continue to limit upside in wheat with Russian harvest moving along at a good clip. Stroms in North Dakota may slow the onset of spring wheat harvest as it moves north. Lower acres for next will also be on the trade's mind with planting season for winter wheat not far off. The weekly progress report listed the winter wheat harvest at 89% complete versus the 86% average, the spring wheat harvest is at 10% versus the 9% average. Spring wheat rangings were unchanged at 68% good to excellent. On the Kansas City December chart support is at the $4.24 contract low. Resistance is at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages around $4.38-40 then the 50-day at 4.73. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.