DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/11 11:30

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/11 11:30 Grains Mixed at Midday Soybeans are higher at midday, wheat and corn mixed in pre-report type trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 125 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 3 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up $1.40. Livestock trade has cattle lower and hogs higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $6. CORN Corn trade is fractionally higher to a penny lower at midday in slow trade; the daily range has only been 3 cents illustrating a pre-report trading mode. The marketplace does not view weather as a big concern illustrated by our trading range this week just above contract lows. Expectations are for bearish USDA numbers tomorrow; a bullish surprise would be few changes and mostly steady carryovers. The average trade yield guess is at 170.6 bushels per acre, the range of expectations is 168 to 175. The new crop carryover is expected to be at 2.25 billion bushels with a range of 1.968 to 2.55 billion. Old crop carrupver os expected to be listed at 1.716 billion; the range of estimates is 1.68 to 1.83 billion bushels. The weekly export sales came in at 594,900 tons of old crop and 1.016 million tons of new which were above the range of expectations. Export demand has been much improved this past month due to lower prices and less world competition. On the December contract support is the contract low at $3.29. Resistance is the 10-day moving average at $3.35; then the 20-day at $3.40. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 5 cents higher on September and 3 higher on November at midday in slow trade; the trading range has been just over a dime. Meal is fractionally higher and soybean oil is up 15 points due to outside market support. Weather continues to have mixed views which has limited downside this week, but most yield expectations are on the rise. The average yield estimate is at 47.5 bushels per acre with a range of 46.7 to 48.5 versus the July 46.7 USDA yield. The new crop carryover estimate is at 316 million bushels with a range of 280 to 416, and old crop at 320 million on a range of estimates from 254 to 355. The weekly export sales had old crop beans at 308,000 and new crop at 2.792 million tons which has supported beans today. Meal sales were 47,900 tons of old crop and 50,400 tons new. Bean oil salses were 11,400 tons old and 1,000 new. Tomorrow is a summer Friday with our August monthly crop report, so it promises to be a more exciting day than today. On the November soybean chart the 10-day moving average at $9.74 is support, then the 200-day at $9.58. The 20-day at $9.87 is first notable resistance, then the 100-day at $10.21. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 lower to 5 higher at midday across the three contracts with limited fresh news. The weekly sales were not horriable, which has limited downside and we have mixed spillover direction from the row crops. The weekly sales were at 607,600 tons. The USDA monthly report tomorrow morning is expected to show heavy supplies which has limited upside so far this month. The average trade guess for the 2016-17 carryout is 1.14 billion bushels; the range of expectations is 1.082 to 1.210 billion. On the Kansas City December chart support is at the $4.24 contract low. Resistance is at the $4.43 1/2 August high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.