DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/12 11:44

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/12 11:44 All Grains Lower at Midday Trade is defensive following higher corn and soybean production numbers on the WASDE report. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 15 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up $1.00. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $7. CORN Corn trade is 7 cents lower which is a bit of a victory for market bulls considering the USDA provided a record yield number and the first 15 billion bushel production number for the U.S. The yield number was 175.1 bushels per acre which was just above the range of all expectations which was 168-175. The new crop carryover increased to 2.409 billion versus 2.287 expected and a range of 2.091-2.653 billion. The world corn carrover bulged to 220.81 million metric tons versus 208.39 last month and expectations of 211.8. The USDA average farm price range is $2.85-$3.45 versus $3.45-$3.55 this past year which seems appropriate at this juncture. New multi-year futures lows were printed this morning. We are a far cry away from the record $8.49 futures price printed four years ago on the August WASDE. December chart support is at $3.22 which is the lower Bollinger band and resistance is at the $3.32 10-day moving average. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 13 lower in post-report trade, meal is off $6 and bean oil is up 7. Outside markets are lightly supportive here at midday. The USDA also provided record large production numbers for beans. The yield was 48.9 bushels per acre versus the 47.6 expected which was also just above the range of expectations. The total production number was at 4.06 billion bushels versus 3.949 expected. Although usage was increased enough to give us a neutral domestic carryover new crop number at 330 million bushels versus the 260-403 milllion bushel range of expectations. The world carryover came in at 71.24 million metric tons versus 67.1 last month and expectations of 67.4. This is still below the levels of the past two years so fundamentally the argument exists that beans do not need to go down and print new contract lows even during harvest. But for today we need to call the report negative to bearish and focus on weather. On the November soybean chart the 200-day at $9.58 is support then the $9.43 four-month low. Resistance is at the 10-day moving average at $9.71 then the 20-day at $9.86. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 lower on Minneapolis, 5 lower on Kansas City and near a dime lower on Chicago in post report trade. The domestic wheat carryover was in line with expectations at 1.1 billion bushels and the world carryover was just below expectations at 241.9 million metric tons. Spillover pressure from the row crops is behind the midday weak trade along with the USDA reminder of a very large and comfortable supply side domestic and global wheat scenario. On the KC December chart support is at the $4.24 contract low. Resistance is at the $4.43 1/2 August high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.