DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/15 11:33

DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/15 11:33 Soybeans Highest Grain Trade at Midday Trade is higher at midday led by outside markets, soybeans pulling corn higher. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 80 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 20 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up $1.15. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $4.40. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to find buying after the strong close on Friday. Spillover support from soybean trade is also noted for our nickel-higher trade. On the USDA WASDE report on Friday the yield number surprised everyone at 175.1 bushels per acre which above all estimates. Mostly doubt and criticism came up over the weekend and talk the number will come down on future reports. The new crop carryover increased to 2.409 billion versus 2.287 expected and a range of 2.091-2.653 billion, which is bearish. The world corn carryover bulged to 220.81 million metric tons versus 208.39 last month. Trade reversed off new lows Friday following the numbers, so a sell the rumor by the fact action is occurring following the bearish news. The weekly export inspections were solid at 1.172 million metric tons, pulling ahead of last year's pace. The good-demand news and thoughts bearish items are priced in have kept sellers away at this juncture. Crop conditions are expected to be steady with progress remaining ahead of normal on the weekly report this afternoon. December chart support is at $3.22 1/2 which is the fresh contract low printed Friday. Resistance is at the 20-day at $3.37 1/2, with which we are flirting at midday. The next major moving average to the upside is not until $3.73 so the next area of resistance we would point to above the 20-day is the late-July high at $3.46. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 20 to 25 cents higher overnight with demand helping to bring more buying back despite the report data from Friday, along with concerns about excessive rainfall over the weekend. Meal is $5 to $6 higher and oil is 100 to 110 points higher. On the report, the yield was 48.9 bushels per acre versus the 47.6 expected, which was also just above the range of expectations. The total production number was at 4.06 billion bushels versus 3.949 expected. Although usage was increased enough to give us a neutral domestic carryover new crop number at 330 million bushels versus the 260-403 million bushel range of expectations. The world carryover came in at 71.24 million metric tons versus 67.1 last month and expectations of 67.4. This is still below the levels of the past two years so fundamentally the argument exists that beans do not need to go down and print new contract lows even during harvest. The weekly export inspections were a bit softer at 746,371 metric tons. Weekly conditions are expected to be steady with progress remaining ahead of normal. On the November soybean chart, trade is back over the 20-day at $9.83 overnight, with the 10.00 area first resistance during the day session, which we have edged through. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed across the three contracts at midday with support from firmer row crop trade and the weaker dollar. The domestic wheat carryover was in line with expectations at 1.1 billion bushels and the world carryover was just below expectations at 241.9 million metric tons. The smaller Western European crop will return to focus this week along with harvest on Russia. Spring wheat harvest in the US will keep moving along with Canadian harvest pressure just around the corner. This will continue to limit upside in the near term. Weekly export inspections were better at 625,154 metric tons, and year to date inspections are well ahead of last year. The weekly condition and progress report is expected to show steady conditions and progress ahead of normal. On the Kansas City December chart support is at the $4.24 contract low. Resistance is at the $4.46 August high, made this morning. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered trading adviser. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.