By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA lowered corn production and yield slightly from last month's report while bumping up soybean production and yield as well.
The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lowered corn production from August to 15.09 billion bushels, still forecast to be the highest on record. Corn yield was also lowered from 175.1 bushels per acre to 174.4 bpa for corn, which is still a record.
Soybean production was raised 141 million bushels due to a higher yield forecast of 50.6 bushels per acre, which bumped production to 4.2 billion bushels, which would be a record.
The U.S. estimates are neutral for corn and wheat and bearish for soybeans, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. USDA's world estimates are neutral for corn, bearish for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat, he said.
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USDA's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA dropped crop production by 61 million bushels from last month's report. USDA also dropped feed and residual use for corn by 25 million bushels that ended up lowering the 2016-17 ending stocks to 2.384 billion bushels, down 25 mb from last's month's estimate. The ending stocks would still be the highest since the 1987-88 crop year.
Old-crop ending stocks also were increased by 10 million bushels to 1.716 billion bushels.
At the farm gate, USDA bumped up the range of corn prices by 5 cents a bushel to $2.90-$3.50 a bushel.
Globally, USDA lowered Brazil's old 2015-16 corn production by 1.5 million metric tons while increasing Brazil's new-crop production by 2.5 mmt. Still, USDA lowered the global 2016-17 corn crop production by 1.79 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA lowered old-crop ending stocks by 60 million bushels to 195 mb. With higher 2016-17 production, USDA also increased exports by 35 million bushels to 1.985 billion bushels.
New-crop ending stocks were increased by 35 million bushels to 365 mb.
Soybean prices were lowered an average of 5 cents a bushel to a range from $8.30 to $9.80 per bushel.
Globally, 2016-17 soybean production is up slightly due to higher production in the U.S. and China, which offset lower soybean production in Brazil, India and Canada. Brazil's soybean production was lowered by 2 mmt due to relatively strong corn prices in southern Brazil, which favors first-crop corn planting.
WHEAT
New-crop wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from the August report. USDA did lower the average farm-gate price by 10 cents per bushel to a range from $3.30 to $3.90.
Global wheat production was raised by 1.41 million metric tons, though increases in global feed use and exports led USDA to lower global ending stocks for 2016-17 wheat by 3.75 million metric tons.
ANALYSIS
On the domestic side, USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 from 2.409 billion to 2.384 billion bushels, which was still a little more than expected. Corn's yield estimate was reduced from 175.1 bushels per acre to 174.4 bpa. "Monday's U.S. report is neutral for corn," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.
USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2016-17 was increased from 330 million to 365 million bushels, more than was expected. The soybean yield estimate was increased from 48.9 bpa to 50.6 bpa. "Monday's report is bearish for soybeans," Hultman said.
USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 was kept at 1.100 billion bushels, which was slightly less than expected. "Monday's report is neutral for wheat," Hultman said.
Meanwhile, on the global side, USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks for 2016-17 was reduced from 220.81 mmt to 219.50 mmt, roughly as expected. World ending soybean stocks estimate for 2016-17 was increased from 71.24 mmt to 72.20 mmt, more than expected. World ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 was reduced from 252.82 mmt to 249.10 mmt, less than expected.
"Monday's world estimates from USDA are neutral for corn, bearish for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat," Hultman said.
| U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2016-17 |
| Sept | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2015-16 |
| Corn | 15,093 | 14,974 | 15,195 | 14,720 | 15,153 | 13,601 |
| Soybeans | 4,201 | 4,100 | 4,165 | 4,000 | 4,060 | 3,929 |
| Grain Sorghum | 488 | 470 | 483 | 460 | 475 | 597 |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2016-17 |
| Sept | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2015-16 |
| Corn | 174.4 | 172.9 | 175.6 | 170.1 | 175.1 | 168.4 |
| Soybeans | 50.6 | 49.4 | 50.1 | 48.5 | 48.9 | 48.0 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17 |
| Sept | Avg | High | Low | Aug |
| Corn | 2,384 | 2,322 | 2,690 | 1,986 | 2,409 |
| Soybeans | 365 | 333 | 440 | 245 | 330 |
| Grain Sorghum | 55 | 49 | 55 | 43 | 51 |
| Wheat | 1,100 | 1,113 | 1,200 | 1,075 | 1,100 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2015-16 |
| Sept | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2014-15 |
| Corn | 1,716 | 1,711 | 1,843 | 1,650 | 1,706 | 1,731 |
| Soybeans | 195 | 228 | 275 | 200 | 255 | 191 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17 |
| Sept | Avg | High | Low | Aug |
| Corn | 219.5 | 219.6 | 228.7 | 211.5 | 220.8 |
| Soybeans | 72.2 | 70.6 | 72.5 | 65.1 | 71.2 |
| Wheat | 249.1 | 251.4 | 255.0 | 246.3 | 252.8 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2015-16 |
| Sept | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2014-15 |
| Corn | 209.3 | 209.1 | 210.5 | 206.9 | 209.3 | 208.3 |
| Soybeans | 72.9 | 72.3 | 73.1 | 71.5 | 73.0 | 78.5 |
| Wheat | 240.9 | 241.8 | 242.0 | 241.1 | 241.9 | 216.1 |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) |
| | 2016-2017 | | 2015-2016 |
| | Sept | Aug | | Sept | Aug |
| EU Wheat | 145.3 | 147.5 | | 160.0 | 160.0 |
| FSU-12 Wheat | 131.4 | 129.9 | | 117.7 | 117.7 |
| | | |
| Brazil corn | 82.5 | 80.0 | | 67.0 | 68.5 |
| Argentine corn | 36.5 | 36.5 | | 28.0 | 28.0 |
| | | |
| Brazil soybeans | 101.0 | 103.0 | | 96.5 | 96.5 |
| Argentine soybeans | 57.0 | 57.0 | | 56.8 | 56.5 |
(AG/)
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