DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/13 11:10

DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/13 11:10 All Grains Lower at Midday Grain trade is weaker across the board at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 250 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down 1.30. Livestock trade is lower across the board. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1.70. CORN Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with outside markets and weak soybeans trade encouraging selling at midday, along with follow through from the report. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ("WASDE") came out yesterday morning. The yield came in at 174.4 bpa versus 172.9 expected and 175.1 on the August report. So the number was in the upper half of the 170.1 to 175.6 range of expectations. The 2016-17 carryover came in at 2.384 billion bushels versus 2.322 billion expected and 2.409 billion on the August report. The world carryover came in at 219.5 versus 219.6 million metric tons expected and 220.8 last month. Overall report numbers for corn were fairly neutral, and the expanding harvest, and demand should provide most of the direction the balance of the momth. Crop conditions were unchanged at 74% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, with 87% dented vs. 82% on average, 33% mature vs. 32% on average, and 5% harvested vs. 4% last year, and 7% on average. Wet weather should slow harvest this week. Ethanol margins are under pressure this morning but remain positive. The December contract chart support is at the $3.32 1/2 20-day then the 10-day at $3.30 which we are testing at midday; resistance is at the $3.40 50-day then the $3.44 August high. SOYBEANS Soybean futures are 13 to 17 cents lower at midday as yield expecations and negative outside markets add some pressure to the markets. Meal is $5 to $6 lower and oil is 60 to 70 points lower. The USDA provided a record 50.6 bushel per acre yield number versus 49.4 expected and 48.9 last month. This increased the production number to 4.2 billion bushels verus 4.1 expected. Usage increased as well so the new crop carryover only increased to 365 million bshels versus the average trade guess at 333 million and 330 last month. The global carryover came in at 72.2 versus the expected 70.6 million metric tons. Crop conditions were steady at 73% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, with 26% dropping leaves, vs. 30% last year, and 25% on average. On the November soybean chart the 20-day at $9.82 is key resistance followed by the $10.02 50-day. Support is at the 10-day at $9.61 which we have fallen below this morning with the recent low at $9.37 further support. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents lower across the three contracts this morning with spillover pressure from the row crops, and the firmer dollar. On the report, domestic 2016-17 carryover came in at 1.1 billion bushels, unchanged from August. The trade was looking for a slight increase. The global number came in at 249.1 million metric ton versus 252.8 last month; expectations were for a 1.5 ton reduction versus the 3.7 million ton reduction seen. Big picture the domestic and global carryovers are huge, so rallies will be sold in wheat until we see a major production issue change our burdensome supply side situation. Low prices are needed to keep demand firm. The weekly progress report pegged spring wheat harvest at 94% harvested vs. 86% on average. On the Kansas City December chart, support is at the 10-day at $4.11, with the $3.95 low after that. Resistance is at the $4.23 20-day moving average which we tested overnight. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.