Fall Weather Outlook

19 Sep 2016

By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- "The only time of year farmers want a drought is during harvest" is a well-known saying that holds true every autumn. Harvest weather this fall looks to be warmer and perhaps wetter in some Corn Belt locations, according to meteorologists on a recent North Central U.S. Monthly Climate and Drought Summary and Outlook webinar.

After the summer of high dew points and the wettest August on record for Illinois and Indiana, the outlook for this fall appears be fairly neutral with a Pacific Ocean El Nino event from 2015-16 pretty much over, said Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Ag Hub director. The Pacific is trending to a La Nina phase at this time; however, while a marginal La Nina might be present, it would not last through this winter.

"There is some La Nina influence for us right now, but it is not a strong influence, and it is not expected to last through this winter," Todey said. "There is some question what kind of influence it will have on us."

30-DAY OUTLOOK

The 30-day outlook calls for temperatures higher than average for most of the Corn Belt and equal chances of being above or below normal for precipitation throughout most of the Midwest. However, above-normal precipitation could be seen from a line from Kansas to Illinois, Todey said.

"We could continue to cause some problems from a precipitation standpoint in these locations," Todey said.

Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist, said on the webinar that despite a call to be fairly close to normal for most of the Midwest on precipitation during harvest, he does have some concerns that there will be areas that will see more wet weather, which could cause harvest delays.

All of the Midwestern states, except for Kentucky, are at or behind schedule for early harvest activities, and that could be amplified if wet weather persists, Rippey said.

Rippey said the late-summer rains will help soybeans fill out pods nicely across the Corn Belt and have allowed some shrinking of drought in Michigan and Ohio as well as South Dakota. The late-season rains, however, have led to some disease issues in both corn and soybeans.

While farmers seeding wheat in the Great Plains region shouldn't see any problems with too much rain, moisture could delay seeding farther east, especially from Missouri through Michigan. In addition, the pasture and rangeland crop condition is a record high for this time of year with 53% in the good-to-excellent range, he said.

THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK

The three-month outlook from October to December also calls for a good stretch of the Midwest to be warmer than average. This is not typical of what you would see in a La Nina situation, he said.

Most of the region should see close-to-average precipitation with an area in Montana seeing wetter-than-average conditions. The forecasting tools don't seem very consistent as regards below or above average precipitation, he said.

Todey said, overall, most of the Corn Belt should be pretty close to average in both temperature and precipitation during this period of time. There could some smaller areas that could see variances from average.

"The northern jet stream should be more active than the south jet will be," he said.

The wetter weather in recent weeks across the Midwest has led to areas of drought shrinking. While drought conditions remain in South Dakota and Ohio, the area appears to growing smaller with rains in both areas.

Todey also said with the crop being ahead of normal growth stages in most places, the frost and freeze dates should be less of an issue this harvest.

"Generally, it appears we have good crop conditions in most places with some smaller areas of minor concern," Todey said.

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(BA/AG/SK)