DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/10 11:15

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/10 11:15 Wheat, Corn Higher at Midday Corn and wheat are green at midday, soybeans mixed. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the DOW 120 points higher. The interest rate products are closed for Columbus Day. The dollar index is 15 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 1.50. Livestock trade is lower, with cattle down sharply. Precious metals are higher with gold up $8.40. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 4 higher at midday with trade near the daily highs. Buying picking up mid-morning following narrowly mixed early trade. Ethanol margins remain positive with harvest pressure likely to support margins this week along with rising unleaded values boosting blender margins. Nearby demand is expected to remain high with the stronger sugar prices supporting US ethanol on the world market. On Wednesday the USDA will release the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ("WASDE"). That should be the market focus next week along with yield results. The average yield estimate is at 173.4 bushels per acre yield versus 174.4 on the September report. The total production is expected to be at 15.04 billion bushels with a range from 14.7 to 15.2. The average carryover estimate is 2.362 billion bushels versus 2.384 on the last report and 1.738 a year ago. The world carryover is expected to be steady with the 209.3 million metric ton September figure. The weekly export inspections and crop progress will be delayed until tomorrow for Columbus Day. On the December contract chart support is the 10-day and 20-day moving average at $3.37-39, with resistance at the 2-month $3.49 high reached on Wednesday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents lower in choppy midday action, with harvest pressure battling commercial buying in two sided trade this morning. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Harvest progress should continue this week, with some rain slowing localized areas with South American planting progress expected to move along with Central Brazil on the dry side. The average yield guess is higher for the WASDE next week, up to 51.5 bushels per acre versus 50.6 on the last report. Total production is expected to rise to 4.277 billion bushels versus 4.201 on the September report. The range of estimates is 4.127-4.356 billion bushels. The new crop carryover is expected to be at 415 million bushels up from 365 million on the September report; the range is 325-475 million. The world carryover is expected to be at 72.9 million metric ton, equal to last month, the range of estimates is 71.7-74.9. The weekly crop progress and export inspection reports are delayed until Tuesday. On the November chart, support is at the $9.56 10-day which we have edged below overnight then the $9.34 6-month low. Resistance is the 50-day moving average at $9.71. WHEAT Wheat trade is firmer at midday with trade 2 to 9 cents higher as wheat continues to stay within the recent range with Chicago trade leading this morning. The dollar remains in the upper end of the recent range which will limit upside potential. The western reaches of the winter wheat belt in the US will need better rains soon to support emergence with above normal temperatures expected to linger into mid-October, while the central part of the belt caught some rains recently. Planting progress should continue with acres expected to be down significantly. On Wednesday the USDA is expected to keep the carryover numbers at huge levels for wheat. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.151 billion up from 1.1 last month. The world carryover is expected to be in line with the 240.9 million metric ton September figure. On the KC December chart support is now the $4.01 low from Friday with $3.95 below that; resistance is at $4.12-15 which is the 10-day and 20-day moving average. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.