DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/11 11:30

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/11 11:30 Little Movement in Grain Trade at Midday Trade is mixed in quiet trade at midday and in the upper part of our daily range. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow 180 points lower. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 55 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down 0.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $0.30. CORN Corn trade is a penny higher in quiet trade at midday following mixed overnight action. Farmer selling remains slow at our current low price levels; this supports ethanol production margins where corn buying/hedging supports corn futures, with ethanol values up slightly this morning. The weekly export inspections remained solid at 1.131 million metric tons. Harvest progress is expected to be just behind normal on the report this afternoon. Wednesday morning USDA will release the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Mixed trade seems likely this afternoon and tomorrow morning going into the numbers. The average yield estimate is at 173.4 bushels per acre yield versus 174.4 on the September report. The total production is expected to be at 15.04 billion bushels with a range from 14.7 to 15.2. The average carryover estimate is 2.362 billion bushels versus 2.384 on the last report and 1.738 a year ago. The world carryover is expected to be steady with the 209.3 million metric ton September figure. On the December contract chart support is the 10-day and 20-day moving average at $3.37-40, with resistance at the two-month $3.49 high reached last Wednesday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with light buying found on our overnight break, the market seems comfortable in the recent trading range. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is mixed. Harvest progress will be slowed with some rain slowing localized areas through midweek. South American planting progress is expected to move along with Central Brazil on the dry side. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.801 million metric tons. Soybean harvest progress is expected to be just behind normal on the report this afternoon; a surprise may be another 1 percentage point increase in the ratings. The average yield guess heading into the monthly USDA report is 51.5 bushels per acre versus 50.6 on the last report. Total production is expected to rise to 4.277 billion bushels versus 4.201 on the September report. The range of estimates is 4.127-4.356 billion bushels. The new crop carryover is expected to be at 415 million bushels up from 365 million on the September report; the range is 325-475 million. The world carryover is expected to be at 72.9 million metric ton, equal to last month, the range of estimates is 71.7-74.9. On the November soybean chart support is at the $9.46 October low, then the $9.34 September low. Resistance is at the $9.75 200-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is a penny lower to 2 cents higher at midday across the three markets. A strong dollar is limiting upside. The western reaches of the winter wheat belt in the U.S. will need better rains soon to support emergence with above normal temperatures expected to linger into mid-October, while the central part of the belt caught some rains in recent days. Above normal temps should support emergence as well. Planting progress should continue with a near normal pace with acres expected to be down. Emergence should be around normal on the weekly report this afternoon which is delayed from yesterday due to the government day off. The weekly export inspections were neutral this morning at 432,859 metric tons. On Wednesday the USDA is expected to keep the carryover numbers at huge levels for wheat. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.151 billion up from 1.1 last month. The world carryover is expected to be in line with the 240.9 million metric ton September figure. On the KC December chart support is at $4.01, the October low, then the contract low at $3.95. Chart resistance is at the 20- David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.