DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/12 11:01

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/12 11:01 Grains Lightly Mixed at Midday Trade is mixed in quiet pre-report trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 5 points higher. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down 0.80. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $2.70. CORN Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with light buying surfacing ahead of the report. Harvest progress was 35% complete vs. 38% on averages with 93% mature vs. 88% on average. Ethanol margins remain positive, but the weekly report is delayed until tomorrow. At 11 a.m. USDA will release the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Mixed trade seems likely this afternoon and tomorrow morning going into the numbers. The average yield estimate is at 173.4 bushels per acre yield versus 174.4 on the September report. The total production is expected to be at 15.04 billion bushels with a range from 14.7 to 15.2. The average carryover estimate is 2.362 billion bushels versus 2.384 on the last report and 1.738 a year ago. The world carryover is expected to be steady with the 209.3 million metric ton September figure. On the December contract chart support is the 10-day and 20-day moving average at $3.38-42, with resistance at the two-month $3.49 high reached last Wednesday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 cents lower ahead of the report with trade unable to sustain early firmness, we are a dime off the daily highs. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. Harvest progress will be slowed with some rain slowing localized areas through midweek. South American planting progress is expected to move along with Central Brazil on the dry side for the near term with the second week showing better potential. Soybean harvest progress is 44% complete vs. 47% on average, and 56% last year. Dropping leaves was 91% vs. 88% on average. The average yield guess heading into the monthly USDA report is 51.5 bushels per acre versus 50.6 on the last report. Total production is expected to rise to 4.277 billion bushels versus 4.201 on the September report. The range of estimates is 4.127-4.356 billion bushels. The new crop carryover is expected to be at 415 million bushels up from 365 million on the September report; the range is 325-475 million. The world carryover is expected to be at 72.9 million metric ton, equal to last month, the range of estimates is 71.7-74.9. On the November soybean chart support is at the $9.46 October low, then the $9.34 September low. Resistance is at the $9.75 200-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with trade chopping along within the recent range ahead of the report. A strong dollar is limiting upside was we edge above the summer highs in currency. The western reaches of the winter wheat belt in the U.S. will need better rains soon to support emergence with above normal temperatures expected to linger into mid-October, while the central part of the belt caught some rains in recent days. Above normal temps should support emergence as well. Planting progress was rated at 59% complete vs. 60% on average, and emergence was 34% vs. 30% on average. On Wednesday the USDA is expected to keep the carryover numbers at huge levels for wheat. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.151 billion up from 1.1 last month. The world carryover is expected to be in line with the 240.9 million metric ton September figure. On the Kansas City December chart support is at $4.01, the October low, then the contract low at $3.95. Chart resistance is at the 20-day at $4.13. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.