DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/13 11:37

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/13 11:37 Corn, Wheat Higher at Midday Corn and wheat are higher at midday, while soybeans struggle. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow 110 points lower. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 31 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude down 0.30. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $5.50. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying after testing support post-report On the report, the corn yield came out right at the average trade guess of 173.4 bushels per acre; harvested acreage went up by 200,000 providing a production number just above expectations at 15.057 billion bushels versus 15.093 on the September report. The carryover came in at 2.32 billion versus the average trade guess of 2.362 billion. The export projection was increased by 50 million to 2.225 billion bushels providing the lower than expected carryover. This is the largest export number since the 2007-08 crop years and the second largest over the past 20 years. The world carryover was lower than expected at 216.8 million metric ton versus 219 expected. The weekly ethanol production report showed smaller than expected production is it was down 1.9%, but stocks were down 3.8%, which has ethanol futures up slightly this morning. On the December contract chart support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.38, then the $3.25 low printed in late September. Resistance is at $3.50, which is the upper Bollinger band and the area of our tvo-month high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday as we work to consolidate in the lower part of the range after the report reaction yesterday. Meal is mixed and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. The soybean yield number came in at expectations at 51.4 bushels per acre. Total production was at 4.269 billion, the largest on record by over 325 million bushels. Despite the huge production, our usage is also at a record just over 4.1 billion bushels. The carryover estimate only rose to 395 million bushels which is the highest over the past 10 years. The world carryover rose to 75.5 million tons versus 72.2 last month. Harvest pressure will continue as we get past the 50% harvested market, with another test of the lows possible. The export wire was active with 241,000 metric tons of soybeans, and 126,000 of meal announced as sold to China and unknown. On the November soybean chart support is at the $9.37 October low from this morning, then the $9.34 September low. Resistance is at the $9.75 200-day moving average. Wheat trade is 5 to 13 cents higher across the three contracts with short covering overnight after the poor finish yesterday, along with support from the dollar rally fading supporting buying this morning. The domestic wheat carryover was lower than expected at 1.138 billion bushels versus 1.151 expected. The world carryover came in at 248.2 million metric ton versus 250 expected. Our domestic wheat carryover is the largest since the 1987-88 crop year; the 1988 drought helped curb production by 15% in 1988 to bring the wheat carryover back to more normal levels. Until the global over supply situation changes wheat should continue to struggle with support under $4, which we tested yesterday. The drought monitor has shown expansion of moisture deficits in much of the winter wheat growing areas, with soft wheat areas showing the most issue so far. On the Kansas City December chart support is at $3.98, the October low, then the contract low at $3.95. Chart resistance is at the 20-day at $4.12. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.