DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/15 11:37

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/15 11:37 Grains Mixed at Midday Supportive outside markets have most contracts at our daily highs at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 30 points and the S&P up 7. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is steady. Energies are higher with crude up $2. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs lower and cattle mostly higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $2. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday and near the daily high; overnight trade was mostly lower and traded 2 cents lower at the low, which was not a new low for the move. The dollar is higher at midday after trading lower, so this may limit upside as the noon hour approaches. The weekly progress report Monday afternoon had the harvest at 93% complete, up 1% from the average pace; this means nothing to the market any longer. The chart remains negative with a new low for the move Friday and Monday. Some came into today looking for a turn-a-around Tuesday bounce which the bull argument needs here; a close above resistance is needed to take away the negative chart momentum. If we do not hold this bounce pressure due to long liquidation could occur near the close. On the December chart the 50-day at $3.43 is resistance then the 20-day at $3.49. Support is at the new low for the move printed Monday at $3.35 1/2 then the two-month low at $3.25. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday following a mixed overnight and morning trade with futures moving both up and down just over a nickel. Meal is down $1 and bean oil is up around 5 points. The trend is still negative but momentum has flattened with help from the outside markets; especially with crude up two bucks at midday. We briefly traded below the 50-day, the lowest major moving average, on Monday but bounced back above it so that held. Help from the weekly export inspections at 2.785 million tons was noted. The bull argument needs a turn-a-round Tuesday today to get us back above the 200-day, at $9.90 on the January contract, otherwise long liquidation could be an issue this afternoon and the rest of the week. The weekly progress report listed 97% of the crop harvested versus the 95% average. Weather issues in South American are limited. On the January chart support is at the 50-day at $9.79, which we did trade below this morning, then the $9.72 lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is at the $9.90 200-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday due to spillover support from corn and some light short profit taking after the sell-off Monday. The dollar strength and poor weekly inspections number has the bears in control of wheat which has kept buyers from pushing wheat higher this morning. The weekly export inspections were poor Monday morning at only 191,062 tons; wheat cannot see weekly sales or inspection numbers this low when we have such a large carryover. This would suggest usage reductions on future USDA reports and an even greater 2016-17 carryover which is already the largest since 1988. The weekly condition report Monday afternoon listed 59% of the crop as good to excellent, up 1 percentage point on the week and up 7 percentage points from a year ago. Planting progress was at 94% versus the winter wheat 95% average. So neutral to negative progress and condition numbers this week. On the Kansas City December chart we traded to a new low for the move down to $4.01 which is nearby support then $3.97. Resistance is at the $4.11 10-day, then the $4.15 20-day followed by the 2-month high at $4.28 1/4. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.