DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/16 11:38

DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/16 11:38 Wheat Trade Mixed at Midday Corn and soybean futures are lower in slow midday trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down 60 points and the S&P up 7. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 230 higher. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.11. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday; this is starting to illustrate holiday-type trade. Heavy supply markets are historically slower day to day; with the largest carryover of this century it likely means 3-5 cent daily ranges can be a mainstay this winter unless South American weather gets dicey. The weekly EIA ethanol production number was 1.5% higher, stocks were 3.22% lower. Ethanol futures are fractionally lower at midday. Crude is down slightly, the dollar up and the Dow futures are down, which is providing light outside market pressure, but at least ethanol is holding up. Ethanol margins remain at a level to promote demand for corn. Harvest is effectively wrapped up and basis remains fairly steady illustrating the big crop has been impressive and burdensome around corn country. Carry has remained fairly steady as well. The December 2016 to 2017 board carry was as wide as 44 cents a few months ago. We saw some carry taken out in September to squeeze it down to 35 cents, but we are back to 39 cents and staying there so far in November. On the December chart the 50-day at $3.43 is resistance then the 20-day at $3.49. Support is at the new low for the move printed Monday at $3.35 1/2 then the two-month low at $3.25. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday after seeing some strength overnight; the midday market is 13 cents off the overnight high. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Trade is holding down near the early week lows so far. Soybean crush for October was a record yesterday as usage continues to be very strong. Weather issues in South America are limited as planting continues. With harvest effectively over, basis should continue to firm a bit with the needs of the export program and crush demands with China buying another 165,000 metric tons of soybeans today. On the January chart support is at the 50-day at $9.79, then the $9.72 lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is at the $9.90 200-day moving average, which has been challenged before trade set back. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday with Minneapolis and Chicago leading trade today while Kansas City struggles near the $4.00 mark. Conditions have held up well despite dry conditions in much of the belt, which along with supplies is keeping trade defensive. The dollar remains at the upper end of the range as well. The weaker emerging market currencies have heightened the disadvantage from the strong dollar as well. On the Kansas City December chart we traded to a new low for the move down to $4.01 which is nearby support then $3.97. Resistance is at the $4.11 10-day, then the $4.15 20-day followed by the two-month high at $4.28 1/4. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.