DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/10 11:22

DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/10 11:22 Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday Mixed midday action appears to be some position squaring ahead of the USDA numbers due out on Thursday morning. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 40. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 3 points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $0.45. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $3. CORN Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday in slow trade; this is giving back the light Monday gains. The trading range through midday is just over 2 cents. CONAB, the USDA equal in Brazil, increased their corn production estimate to 84.5 million metric ton up from 83.8 mmt; the USDA is currently at 86.5 for Brazil. Argentine production may come down a little but no big net change is expected. The USDA reports on Thursday morning are important due to an update of the 2016 production number and any production adjustments in the start of the most important South American weather months. Plus the quarterly stocks numbers are released. The average trade guess for the updated world 2016-17 corn carryover is at 221.9 million metric ton versus 222.3 on the December report. The range of estimates is 218-225 mmt. The domestic carryover is expected to come in at 2.396 billion bushels versus 2.403 billion on the December report; 2.2-2.8 billion is the range of estimates. The 2016 production estimate is expected to be at 15.198 billion versus 15.226 on the November report which is behind the lower carryover number. The December 1 Quarterly stocks are expected to come in at 12.358 billion which is up from 11.238 billion a year ago; the range of estimates is 11.7-12.5 billion. Big supply numbers continue to reign. On the March corn chart support is at the $3.55 20-day moving average, then the $3.51 100-day and lowest major moving average. Resistance is at $3.65 which is the upper Bollinger band as well as the area of our 2-month high. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is up around a nickel at midday after trading down over a nickel overnight. Meal is $2.50 higher and bean oil is narrowly mixed. The mixed action illustrates the market players have limited intentions of doing much until we seen the USDA numbers on Thursday. CONAB estimated the 2017 soybean crop at 103.8 million tons up 1.35 mmt. The USDA monthly report is Thursday is likely to leave Brazil the same and lower Argentina giving a net reduction in overall production estimates. The world carryover average trade guess is at 82.5 million metric tons versus 82.9 on the December report, the range of estimates is 79.6 to 84.8 mmt. The US production estimate is expected to come ina t 4.38 billion versus 4.361 billion on the November report. The carryover is expected to still slip thought, down to 468 million bushels versus the 480 million on the December report. The Dec 1 quarterly soybean stocks are expected to be at 2.951 billion versus 2.715 billion a year ago. On the March chart we challenged support at the $9.96 100-day moving average the past three sessions now, but find buying interest. The low last Tuesday at $9.92 3/4 is the next level of notable chart support under the 100-day then the $9.83 3/4 2-month low. Chart resistance is at the $10.07 200-day then the $10.21 20-day moving average. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday across the three markets; Chicago and kens have only seen 4 cent trading ranges. The USDA numbers are expected to show big supplies which are taking away from the positive chart action this past week. The 100-day at $4.30 is chart support which we moved above on Friday and have held above it which could still attract speculative buying this afternoon. The four-month high at $4.45 is resistance, then the 200-day up at $4.62. The USDA monthly report on Thursday is expected to show the world carryover at 251.9 million metric ton versus 252.1 on the last report. The domestic carryover is expected to be at 1.148 billion versus 1.143 billion last month. The Dec 1 Quarterly Stocks are expected to be at 2.044 billion versus 1.746 billion a year ago. The all-winter wheat seedings estimate is expected to be at 34.2 million acres down from 36.1 a year ago; the range of estimates is 31.7-36.4, so room for a surprise here. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.