DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- According to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN for the second week of January 2017, fertilizer price trends continue to be stuck in a narrow price range. For the first time in recent weeks, however, more fertilizers are now trending slightly higher than lower.

Five of the eight major fertilizers edged higher although none by any substantial amount. Potash averaged $320/ton, urea $338/ton, anhydrous $467/ton, UAN28 $222/ton and UAN32 $258/ton.

The remaining three fertilizers were slightly lower but none of these moves to the low side were that significant. DAP averaged $432/ton, MAP $441/ton and 10-34-0 $437/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.37/lb.N, anhydrous $0.29/lb.N, UAN28 $0.40/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N.

Retail fertilizer prices are moving this winter but the changes are fairly small. Two major factors appear to have come into play for spring pricing, according to Bob Spratt, manager of LeRoy Fertilizer Services located in LeRoy, Illinois.

"Potash and urea have moved up due to buying [demand] and supply being tight," Spratt told DTN. "But this is tempered with the fact that prices are still historically low."

While the phosphorus price outlook appears to be mostly flat this winter, the outlook for nitrogen appears to be less clear. The unknown factor that could affect nitrogen prices is the beginning of new nitrogen supply at the OCI fertilizer plant in Wever, Iowa.

DTN reported back in the fall that production was set to begin by the end of the year, according to an OCI spokesperson. However, some fertilizer industry experts at the time did not believe the plant would be begin producing nitrogen until the first quarter of 2017.

The product from that facility has to go somewhere and the new supply should distort the nitrogen market structure at least in the short term, he said.

"If anything, I would think nitrogen prices should remain flat," he said.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier and should offer relief to many farm budgets this season. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

Urea remains down 11%, DAP is 13% less expensive, MAP is 15% lower and potash is 18% less expensive versus the same time a year ago. Both UAN28 and UAN32 are now 19% lower while anhydrous is 20% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 24% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/SK)

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