By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA left domestic corn and soybean production unchanged in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Friday, but bumped both old-crop and new-crop soybean ending stocks both domestically and globally.
Because of a 15-million-bushel change in the 2016-17 domestic soybean crush, ending stocks for both old-crop and new-crop soybeans were raised by a corresponding 15 million bushels.
USDA left old-crop and new-crop corn stocks and use unchanged from the May WASDE report.
Friday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for corn and bearish for soybeans and wheat, he said.
For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…
Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
SOYBEANS
USDA reduced domestic soybean crush to 1.91 billion bushels, reflecting lower domestic meal usage in the market. That translated to increasing the 2016-17 ending stocks to 450 million bushels. With no change in new-crop production, use or exports, then new-crop ending stocks were bumped up to 495 million bushels.
The farm gate price for soybeans was unchanged at an average of $9.30 per bushel.
Global soybean production was raised for 2016-17 by 3.3 million metric tons to 351.3 million metric tons mostly because the Brazil soybean crop was bumped up 2.4 mmt to 114 mmt. That was due to increased yields in the more-recently harvested areas of Brazil.
The bump in Brazil's crop led to a 3 mmt increase in new-crop beginning stocks that USDA carried forward to 2017-18 soybean ending-stocks estimate of 3.41 mmt.
CORN
Left unchanged, 2017-18 beginning stocks remain pegged at 2.295 billion bushels and production for the year is projected at 14.065 billion bushels. Ending stocks for 2017-18 remain projected at 2.11 billion bushels.
The farm gate average price for corn also remains unchanged at $3.40 a bushel.
Global corn production for 2017-18 is projected at 1,031.86 million metric tons, down 1.8 mmt from last month's forecast. That shifts to ending stocks projected at 194.33 mmt, down 0.94 mmt from last month's report. Those changes were based on lower corn production in the European Union and Canada, offsetting increased corn production in Ukraine.
WHEAT
All-wheat production was estimated at 1.824 billion bushels, up 3.8 million bushels from last month's report.
USDA pegged all-winter wheat production at 1.25 billion bushels, just slightly above the pre-report average. Production is down 25% from 2016's harvest. Hard red winter wheat is projected at 743 million bushels while soft red winter is projected at 298 million bushels. White winter wheat is pegged at 209 million bushels.
All-winter wheat yield is pegged at 48.9 bushels per acre, down 6.4 bushels from last year's record yield. Still, if realized, 2017 would be the second-highest yield on record.
The average wheat price was bumped up 5 cents to $4.30 a bushel.
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-2017 |
| June | Avg | High | Low | May | 2015-16 |
| Corn | 2,295 | 2,284 | 2,360 | 2,215 | 2,295 | 1,737 |
| Soybeans | 450 | 432 | 461 | 400 | 435 | 197 |
| Grain sorghum | 53 | 47 | 51 | 43 | 48 | 37 |
| Wheat | 1,161 | 1,158 | 1,177 | 1,140 | 1,159 | 976 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-2018 |
| June | Avg | High | Low | May |
| Corn | 2,110 | 2,073 | 2,139 | 1,840 | 2,110 |
| Soybeans | 495 | 498 | 668 | 458 | 480 |
| Grain sorghum | 29 | 22 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| Wheat | 924 | 909 | 995 | 860 | 914 |
| U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-2018 (WASDE) |
| Jun | Avg | High | Low | May | 2016-17 |
| Corn | 14,065 | 14,022 | 14,065 | 13,855 | 14,065 | 15,148 |
| Soybeans | 4,255 | 4,229 | 4,255 | 4,102 | 4,255 | 4,307 |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2017-2018 (WASDE) |
| Jun | Avg | High | Low | May | 2016-17 |
| Corn | 170.7 | 169.7 | 170.7 | 165.7 | 170.7 | 174.6 |
| Soybeans | 48.0 | 47.6 | 48.0 | 46.0 | 48.0 | 52.1 |
| WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-2018 |
| June | Average | High | Low | May | 2016-17 |
| All Wheat | 1,824 | 1,825 | 1,866 | 1,800 | 1,820 | 2,310 |
| All Winter Wheat | 1,250 | 1,245 | 1,292 | 1,220 | 1,246 | 1,672 |
| HRW | 743 | 734 | 783 | 714 | 738 | 1,082 |
| SRW | 298 | 296 | 310 | 290 | 297 | 345 |
| White | 209 | 215 | 231 | 207 | 212 | 245 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2016-2017 |
| June | Avg | High | Low | May | 2015-16 |
| Corn | 224.6 | 224.0 | 226.8 | 221.5 | 223.9 | 212.4 |
| Soybeans | 93.2 | 91.0 | 92.4 | 90.0 | 90.1 | 77.1 |
| Wheat | 256.4 | 255.2 | 256.1 | 253.3 | 255.4 | 242.4 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2017-2018 |
| June | Avg | High | Low | May |
| Corn | 194.3 | 195.4 | 197.3 | 193.4 | 195.3 |
| Soybeans | 92.2 | 89.5 | 90.7 | 88.8 | 88.8 |
| Wheat | 261.2 | 257.7 | 260.0 | 256.0 | 258.3 |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2016-2017 |
| June | Avg. | High | Low | May | 2015-16 |
| Corn |
| Brazil corn | 97.0 | 96.5 | 98.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 67.0 |
| Argentina corn | 40.0 | 40.3 | 42.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 29.0 |
| Soybeans |
| Brazil soybeans | 114.0 | 112.3 | 113.2 | 111.5 | 111.6 | 96.5 |
| Argentina soybeans | 57.8 | 57.4 | 58.2 | 57.0 | 57.0 | 56.8 |
(AG)
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