DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12 11:07

DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/12 11:07 All Grains Lower at Midday It is raining in Chicago at midday, and some spots around the Corn Belt, which has the market red in pre-report trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 110 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 2 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up 0.25. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $6. CORN Corn trade is 6 cents lower at midday ahead of the report with light long profit taking noted along with some rains moving though the Corn Belt. Outside markets are limiting downside with the stock market, crude and the dollar higher. The July USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is due out at 11. The trade is expecting the July 2016-17 domestic carryover to be at 2.336 billion bushels versus 2.295 on the June report. The higher June 1 quarterly stocks and higher 2017 acreage are expected to have the new crop carryover higher as well. The average trade guess is at 2.131 billion bushels versus 2.110 on the June report. The new crop world carryover is expected to be at 195.2 million metric tons versus 194.3 on the June report. The weekly ethanol production was down 0.69% with stocks down 1.81% with a 0.83% rise in gas demand. This has ethanol mixed at midday with corn lower giving us a positive morning for production board margins. The trade should react to any surprises on the report then focus on weather; forecasts have leaned less threatening so the midday bias is trade should stay range bound in our upper range here but take out some weather premium. On the December chart support is $4 which is the 10-day moving average with resistance at $4.17 1/4 which is our 12-month high printed yesterday. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 8 cents lower at midday with lightly long profit taking ahead of the report and some rains falling this morning. Meal is $1.50 lower and bean oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The WASDE average trade guess is for the old crop carryover to be at 434 million bushels versus 450 on the June report and new crop at 483 million bushels versus 495 million on the June report. The world new crop ending stocks are expected to be equal to last to last month at 92.2 million metric tons. All eyes should remain on weather once the report is out. On the November chart the new high at 10.47 is resistance with support at $10.17 3/4 which is the bottom of the gap left on Sunday night. WHEAT Wheat trade is 7 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade drifting lower on a lack of fresh news and long profit taking ahead of the report. The 2017-18 domestic carryover is expected to come in at 879 million bushels versus 924 on the June report. The world wheat carryover is expected to be at 256.6 million tons versus 261.2 on the June report. Any lower supply side estimates by the USDA should help wheat firm, but otherwise spillover direction from the row crops should direct trade this afternoon. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 10-day at $5.65 with resistance at $6.02 which was the new high printed last week. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.