DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 11:27

DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/09 11:27 All Grains Lower at Midday Softer trade across the board at midday lead by a weak stock market. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are lower at midday with the Dow futures down 400 points with exceptional volatility continuing. The interest rate products are flat. The dollar index is 20 higher. Energies are lower with crude down 1.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold 3.00 lower. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with light selling as we remain stuck against resistance at the upper end of the range. Ethanol margins continued to get squeezed by the energy complex pulling back and firmer corn values. Ethanol futures remain at the lower end of the range. Basis is expected to remain mostly steady to weaker with trade at the upper end of the range. On the WADSE report yesterday the domestic carryover came in below expectations at 2.352 billion bushels vs. 2.458 billion expected, world stocks at 203.1 vs 203.8 million metric tons expected, with Brazilian production at 95 million vs. 92.7 million metric tons expected, and Argentina at 39 million vs. 40.4 million metric tons expected. The daily export wire has been quitter with talk of China canceling cargos over GMO concerns. On the March chart support is now the 100-day at $3.57 with the 20-day at 3.55 below that, with the 200-day moving average at $3.76 the highest moving average resistance after the $3.66 upper Bollinger band. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with range bound action continuing after an uneventful report and early rains starting to fall in Argentina as expected. Meal is $1 lower and soybean oil is down 5. South American weather is expected to add short term relief to Argentina, but follow up rain is still expected to be limited. The Brazilian real has slipped vs. the dollar in recent days, likely keeping the export pace restrained, especially with early Brazilian beans now starting to come out. Weekly sales remained mediocre at 743,200 metric tons of beans, 160,800 of meal, and 7,800 of oil. On the WASDE report, domestic carryout was higher than expected at 530 million bushels vs. 496 million bushels, world stocks at 98.1 vs. 98.7 million metric tons expected, Brazil production at 112.0 vs. 111.6 million metric tons expected, and Argentina at 52.0 vs. 53.6 million metric tons expected. On the March, support is the weekly low at $9.67, with the 20-day above that at $9.82 with resistance at the 100-day at 9.88 which we are tested before setting back. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 8 cents lower with trade pulling back after the report failed to provide a further bullish spark. Weakness is also noted due to wetter weather forecast the second week out, while near term dryness continues, with northern Kansas seeing some potential snow. The Black Sea area has seen some stressful weather for winter as well with little protective cover. The dollar is just above 90 on the index, with trade mostly holding gains even with the variability in the outside markets. On the WASDE report, domestic carryout was 1.009 billion vs 989 million bushels expected, and world stocks at 266.1 vs. 267.5 million metric tons expected. On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the 10-day at $4.67 which we are testing at midday after trade pulled back below the 200-day at $4.73 overnight, with the upper bolliger band just above the market at $4.88. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. He can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.