DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/28 11:46

DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/28 11:46 Grain Trade Trending Lower at Midday Grain trade is slightly lower at midday in slow action. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures up 20 points. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 45 points higher. Energies are mixed. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are lower with gold down $13. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to grind along at the lower end of the range as we move closer to the report. The trade sees the wet weather from Texas up to the Great Lakes region as mixed for the market with most market focus on the upcoming acres and stocks report due out Thursday, with early fieldwork likely to stay at a crawl. Weekly ethanol production was off slightly, with stocks down 938,000 barrels, and gasoline demand lower. Ethanol futures are slightly higher post report. Most of the acre guesses are in the 88.5-million-to-90.0-million range with March 1 Quarterly stocks expected to be equal to or 100 million greater than the 8.621 billion bushel figure a year ago. On the May chart we slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.78 1/2, with trade dipping below the 50-day at $3.74 1/2 in the middle of our daily trading range. Notable support is at last week's low at $3.69 1/2. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with early two-sided action again before turning lower. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The market continues to expect lower production estimates for Argentina with its growing season nearly complete. Now the focus is moving toward the U.S. growing season and acreage. The trade has been talking about acres in the 90 to 92 million range with the economics favoring beans in many areas; and less overall risk and input costs this year after a few years of stagnate and lower grain prices. So keep Thursday in mind as a very important report day, maybe one of the top days of the year, which it commonly is. The quarterly soybean stocks will be a reminder of the large old crop stocks; the trade is expecting a March 1 number just above 2 billion bushels versus the 1.739-billion-bushel March 1 2017 number. On the May contract, support is the 50-day at 10.23, which we are below at midday, then the 100-day at $10.07 with resistance at the 20-day at 10.47. WHEAT Wheat trade is narrowly mixed for winter wheat with trade-off the early lower, while spring wheat is 3 to 5 cents lower. Some rains moved through the Southern Plains, but the forward forecast looks to keep dryness intact especially for western Kansas. Looking to Thursday the March 1 wheat stocks should be around 1.475-1.5 billion bushels versus 1.657 billion a year ago. The winter wheat acreage is expected to be at 32.6 million acres with spring at 13.1-13.5 million; with total wheat acreage around 46 million acres. On the May Kansas City wheat support is the 100-day at $4.63 which we are testing at midday, with the 50-day at $4.87 chart resistance. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.